Chicago @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up a massive 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league. This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a colossal 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Cole Kmet has notched significantly more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game). Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.0. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.3% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the anemic Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 2.38 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.