Commanders @ Falcons Picks & Props

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jayden Daniels in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Since the start of last season, the weak Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a staggering 1.85 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the biggest rate in the league.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to throw 36.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Drake London has received 22.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Atlanta's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 33.0%.. When it comes to air yards, Drake London ranks in the towering 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a massive 96.0 per game.. Since the start of last season, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.00 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-biggest rate in football.. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Kyle Pitts has received 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Atlanta's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 19.2%.. When talking about air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the lofty 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 35.0 per game.. Kyle Pitts's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.4.. Kyle Pitts's 80.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 65.2% mark.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Bijan Robinson grades out in the 96th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.25 per game.. Bijan Robinson has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among running backs (1st percentile).. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. While Deebo Samuel Sr. has received 14.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Washington's offense near the end zone in this week's game at 25.4%.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. With an impressive 28.0% Red Zone Target% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz stands among the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Falcons defense has given up the most receiving TDs in football to RBs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Falcons pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (88.6%).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.. Bijan Robinson's 77.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a material reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 87.4% figure.. Since the start of last season, the stout Commanders defense has allowed a feeble 78.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.. Drake London has been a less important option in his offense's passing offense this season (25.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (30.9%).. Drake London's receiving performance has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 3.8 adjusted receptions vs 5.8 last year.

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (51.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.. The Falcons linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football in the red zone (52.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.. At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Commanders cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to throw 36.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to throw 36.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Commanders cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to throw 36.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Falcons pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.6%).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Drake London to notch 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Drake London ranks in the towering 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a massive 96.0 per game.. The Commanders cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Bijan Robinson to accumulate 5.0 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Bijan Robinson's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 21.9.. Bijan Robinson has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).. Bijan Robinson's 8.2 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a significant improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 6.3 mark.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Kyle Pitts is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.. When talking about air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the lofty 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a striking 35.0 per game.. Kyle Pitts's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.4.. With a terrific 32.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks among the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the model to run 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Commanders have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. This week, Zach Ertz is expected by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.3 targets.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The model projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Bijan Robinson has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (81.0).. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The model projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

At a hefty 29.43 seconds per snap, the Falcons offense grades out as the 9th-slowest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to run on 45.6% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The model projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's safety corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.