New York @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (58.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game. The Tampa Bay offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board. Baker Mayfield has been among the top TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.42 per game while ranking in the 98th percentile. The Jets defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

The Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the anemic Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been torched for a massive 72.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-highest rate in the league.

The Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 80.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

The Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league. While Garrett Wilson has accounted for 25.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New York's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 31.4%. Garrett Wilson has posted a massive 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (58.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game. The Tampa Bay offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board. The Jets defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (58.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game. With an elite 24.3% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Mike Evans rates as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football. Mike Evans has accumulated a colossal 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wide receivers. Mike Evans's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 98th percentile for wideouts.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (58.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game. When it comes to air yards, Cade Otton ranks in the towering 85th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, totaling a massive 33.0 per game. Cade Otton has been in the 87th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 37.1 mark since the start of last season. The Tampa Bay offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are heavy underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league. Breece Hall has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 9.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 83rd percentile among RBs. Breece Hall has accrued a massive 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).