Indianapolis @ Tennessee Picks & Props

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board. Daniel Jones's 69.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a remarkable gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 63.4% figure. Since the start of last season, the deficient Titans defense has surrendered a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.5% Adjusted Completion%). Since the start of last season, the weak Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a staggering 1.63 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. Our trusted projections expect Chig Okonkwo to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line in this game (14.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.8% in games he has played). Chig Okonkwo has put up a staggering 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Chig Okonkwo's 27.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 76th percentile for tight ends. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.5% Adjusted Completion%).

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. Calvin Ridley has accrued a monstrous 103.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile when it comes to WRs. Calvin Ridley has been in the 92nd percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 65.1 figure since the start of last season. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. While Jonathan Taylor has garnered 69.8% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of Indianapolis's running game near the goal line in this week's contest at 58.7%. Jonathan Taylor has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 8.3% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board. Jonathan Taylor's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 56.8% to 100.0%.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. Tony Pollard's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 87th percentile for RBs. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (75.5% Adjusted Completion%).