If Tyler Warren sees his usual eight targets in this game, then he should have no issue surpassing this yardage total. There is no reason to believe that he won’t, unless Jonathan Taylor busts out some massive runs early and they take such a big lead that it takes the passing game out. That is unlikely, though.
The Colts have been throwing the ball on early downs due to their confidence in new QB Daniel Jones. That means opposing defenses won't be as willing to stack the box against Pro Bowl RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor rushed for 165 yards against Denver's highly-rated defense last week and he has now rushed for 95+ yards in six of his last seven games. That includes a Week 16 clash with the Titans last year when he rumbled for 218 yards on 29 carries. This year, the Titans are last in the league in defensive rush EPA while surrendering 150 rushing yards per game.
Daniel Jones has taken 45% of the Colts’ red-zone carries and four of their six attempts from inside the 5-yard line. That usage alone makes his price a strong buy in Week 3. Head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop the Tush Push as Philly’s OC, clearly likes using his quarterback in short-yardage spots. Last week, Indy ran QB sneaks on three straight plays near the goal line (one was nullified by a defensive penalty). With the Titans forced to key on Taylor, Jones has multiple paths to a touchdown—designed runs, scrambles, or a call at the 1-yard line.
The Colts crushed the Dolphins in Week 1 before edging the Broncos on a last-second FG last week. New QB Daniel Jones has been impressive and has established an instant rapport with rookie TE Tyler Warren. With Pro Bowl RB Jonathan Taylor piling up yards on the ground, the Colts will move the ball against a Titans D that surrendered 439 yards and 33 points last week. After a dominant performance in Week 1, the Colts defense regressed last week with their best pass rusher (Laiatu Latu) and top CB (Charvarius Ward) sidelined by injuries. Both should be back this week and will help Indy shut down a Tennessee offense still finding its footing under rookie pivot Cam Ward.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.9 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. The Indianapolis O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.. Daniel Jones's 69.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a remarkable gain in his throwing accuracy over last year's 63.4% figure.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Titans defense has surrendered a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Colts are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 50.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions this week.. In this week's game, Daniel Jones is expected by the projections to total the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.5. . Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (just 28.4 per game) since the start of last season.
At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.. With a top-tier 52.7% Route% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Tony Pollard rates among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.. Our trusted projections expect Tony Pollard to earn 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.. The projections expect Calvin Ridley to accumulate 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.. Calvin Ridley has accrued a monstrous 103.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Calvin Ridley has been in the 92nd percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 65.1 figure since the start of last season.. The Colts pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.3%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (70.3%).
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Colts are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 50.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions this week.. Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (just 28.4 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the stout Titans pass defense has conceded the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a mere 3.8 YAC.
The projections expect the Titans to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Indianapolis Colts run defense has conceded a whopping 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst in the league.. The Colts linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Colts are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to run on 49.7% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.9 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions this week.. Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Colts are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to run on 49.7% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.9 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.. Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier conditions this week.. In this game, Daniel Jones is predicted by the projection model to notch the 3rd-most carries among all quarterbacks with 7.5.
The projections expect the Titans to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.. This week, Tony Pollard is expected by the projections to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 18.3 rush attempts.. After accounting for 64.6% of his offense's carries last season, Tony Pollard has had a larger role in the rushing attack this season, now comprising 80.9%.. Tony Pollard has averaged 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (87th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the shaky Indianapolis Colts run defense has conceded a whopping 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst in the league.