Indianapolis @ Tennessee props

The Colts have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 51.0 plays per game. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a mere 24.0 per game) this year. Since the start of last season, the imposing Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a paltry 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Tennessee's group of LBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Josh Downs to accumulate 8.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year. Josh Downs rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. While DeAndre Hopkins has received 13.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Tennessee's pass game this week at 20.0%. DeAndre Hopkins's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 56.6% to 69.8%. The Colts pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (74.3%) to wideouts this year (74.3%). When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Indianapolis's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Colts pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (74.3%) to wideouts this year (74.3%). When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Indianapolis's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. Chigoziem Okonkwo's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.8% to 80.0%. This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered a staggering 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-largest rate in the league. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Indianapolis's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to accrue 3.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs. With an excellent 3.3 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard places among the best pass-catching running backs in the league. Tony Pollard's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 83.5% to 87.0%. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Indianapolis's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

Josh Whyle has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Goodson has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Mo Alie-Cox has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.