Tampa Bay @ Carolina props

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Panthers to pass on 54.5% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume. When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.

A running game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 4.5-point favorite this week. The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 9th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.3 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

A running game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 4.5-point favorite this week. The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 9th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers this year (just 56.3 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: fewest in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (75.3%) versus RBs this year (75.3%).

A passing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a colossal 62.1 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league. In this week's contest, Adam Thielen is projected by the projections to land in the 90th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets. Adam Thielen's receiving talent has been refined this season, compiling 6.3 adjusted catches compared to a measly 4.1 last season.

Cade Otton has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (63.9%). In this game, Cade Otton is anticipated by the projections to place in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets. Cade Otton's 70.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 66.2% rate. The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.6%) versus TEs this year (77.6%).

Chris Godwin has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Trey Palmer has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Miles Sanders has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

DJ Chark Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.