Texas Tech opened as a 10-point favorite, but the likelihood that Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt returns from an ankle injury lowered this spread to -7.5. That is an overreaction. Leavitt might be worth 2.5 points against most teams, but the Red Raiders' defense is too good. Their quarterback may also be injured, but the value in Texas Tech comes from its defense, anyway.
Both teams here have quarterback uncertainties, but Texas Tech's starter is better than Arizona State's starter, and the Red Raiders' backup is better than the Sun Devils' backup. The edge should lie with Texas Tech. More notably, though, the Red Raiders' defense is their true calling card, and it should ruin Arizona State's late downs, already ranking in the bottom third in the country in that regard.