Mississippi State vs LSU   Picks & Props

The Bulldogs' passing game has carried this offense, but it runs into an LSU secondary that allows only a 34.1% passing success rate, the 6th in the country. If Taylor is out or limited, the Bulldogs will be relying on a backup against one of the toughest pass defenses they’ll see all season.

LSU isn’t built to light up the scoreboard either. Just watch what its quarterback has looked like this season.

Additionally, the Tigers rank 43rd in offensive EPA per play and 63rd in rushing success rate, so long, clock-eating drives are more likely than quick scores. With LSU allowing only a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs, points should be harder to come by than this total suggests.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense has been one of the best in the country, ranking 5th in adjusted EPA per play, but that production runs through QB Kamario Taylor. He’s questionable with a foot injury that clearly limited him against Alabama, and leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is questionable too. Even a fully healthy Bulldogs attack would be in for a fight. LSU’s defense ranks 4th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in EPA per pass allowed (-0.26). Despite a very lackluster performance last weekend against the Kentucky Wildcats, I'm still a believer in this Tigers unit because of those metrics.

On the other side, Mississippi State’s defense ranks 101st in success rate allowed and 99th against the pass, which gives an inconsistent QB Sam Leavitt plenty of room to work, even through the mistakes.