Alabama vs Tennessee Picks & Props
ALA vs TENN Picks
NCAAF PicksAlabama's offense is one of the best in the country, and I'd take the Tide to hit the Over on their team total at 30.5 or better. Keelon Russell has put up an 80.9+ QBR in four straight games while accounting for 14 TDs. He's going to be a problem for a Tennessee defense that's susceptible to the pass. The Vols' defense ranks 70th in pass success rate (43.9%).
I like the Over at 51.5 or better, primarily because of Alabama's offense. Keelon Russell ranks third nationally in QBR (90.0) and has the Tide ranked No. 18 in the country in pass success rate (51.6%). But Tennessee's run game should help the Over hit, too. DeSean Bishop is top 10 nationally in rushing yards after contact (465) and runs of 10+ yards (18). He should help the Vols score 20+.
I like Alabama to cover up to -9.5 because of Tennessee's QB issue. The Crimson Tide are averaging 40 points per game against P4 defenses ranked outside the top five by SP+. Tennessee just struggled to score against an Arkansas defense that allowed 34+ to Utah, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
I like Alabama to cover up to -9.5 because of Tennessee's QB issue. The Crimson Tide are averaging 40 points per game against P4 defenses ranked outside the top five by SP+. Tennessee just struggled to score against an Arkansas defense that allowed 34+ to Utah, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
Coming off its loss to Georgia, I'm expecting Alabama to come out swinging against Tennessee. The Volunteers are starting George MacIntyre at QB, who had a 10.3 QBR in his first start last week against a bad Arkansas team. The Crimson Tide's pass rush should give him hell early and force mistakes. Keelon Russell's dual-threat will be a problem for Tennessee's defense.
ALA vs TENN Consensus Picks
ALA vs TENN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u239.5 Passing Yards
238.57 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.85%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
37.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.4
DIFFERENCE
27.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o16.5 Rushing Yards
35.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.2
DIFFERENCE
26.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
T. Brown
(RB)
o50.5 Rushing Yards
58.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
23.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
60.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.7
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
D. Brame
(TE)
o20.5 Receiving Yards
32.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
25.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
K. Edwards
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
23.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.8
DIFFERENCE
25.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
75.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
23.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
o55.5 Receiving Yards
60.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
17.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
M. Pritchett
(TE)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
26.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-13.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
16.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o18.5 Carries
19.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.68%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 games overall.