Wisconsin vs UCLA Picks & Props
WIS vs UCLA Picks
NCAAF PicksUCLA has been perfect at 5-0 straight up and against the spread, but the Bruins could be due for a letdown after a busy travel schedule. Wisconsin has won four straight games by an average of 25 points and enters well-rested after its Oct. 3 win over Michigan State. The Badgers have the edge to pull off the road upset.
Both quarterbacks are turnover-prone, and both defenses are potent, creating the recipe for a defensive touchdown. Colton Joseph has thrown 15 interceptions since the start of last season, and UCLA's defense is tied for the national lead in turnovers forced (19). Ty Dieffenbach had 11 turnover-worthy passes on just 163 attempts at Cal Poly.
Neither team is in a hurry offensively. Wisconsin ranks 99th in seconds between snaps (27.8), while UCLA is even slower at 125th (29.4). UCLA's backup QB won't find much room against Wisconsin's salty defense (ninth in EPA per play), and the Bruins have a dominant stop unit of their own (second in EPA per play).
I'm on Wisconsin at any underdog price. UCLA's on a backup quarterback, Ty Dieffenbach, who had a 9:9 TD-to-INT ratio at Cal Poly last season. The Badgers rank second in explosiveness on both sides of the ball and can capitalize following their bye week.
Wisconsin has looked extremely competent lately. The Badgers have won four straight games, have covered in three straight, and are catching UCLA in a very tricky spot. The Bruins will have to fend off a serious letdown after taking down Oregon on the road, and Nico Iameleava's leg injury looms large after he left Saturday's game in the second half. If he can't go, UCLA will struggle against a Wisconsin defense that leads the nation in yards per play and ranks fifth in yards per game.
This will be a sluggish contest in which neither team pushes the tempo. Both teams have a stronger defense than offense, and Wisconsin's stop unit will thrive from the jump against a backup quarterback.
WIS vs UCLA Consensus Picks
WIS vs UCLA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
o149.5 Passing Yards
176.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.8
DIFFERENCE
26.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
u190.5 Passing Yards
172.66 UNDER
PROJECTION
-17.8
DIFFERENCE
25.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
u89.5 Rushing Yards
71.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-17.6
DIFFERENCE
25.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
u44.5 Rushing Yards
41.61 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
o17.5 Rushing Yards
17.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
47.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
25.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
T. Henry
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
45.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
24.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
31.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
24.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
L. Ellis
(WR)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
20.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
21.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
24.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
14.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
2.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-1.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
o11.5 Carries
11.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
u15.5 Completions
15.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
11.85%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Bruins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Over is 6-0 in Badgers last 6 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Badgers last 6 games following a ATS win.
Bruins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games as a road favorite.
Bruins are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Bruins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.