Vanderbilt @ Alabama Picks & Props

Pavia has rushed for 79+ yards each of his last two games on single-digit carries, and has topped 60 yards in three of his last four. And Saturday he will face an Alabama front seven that will be without two starting linebackers, in addition to James Smith being suspended for the first half. He’s the leading rusher on Vanderbilt this season, operating behind a line generating 3.5 line yards per rush. That’s led to the Commodores getting 1.4 second-level yards per carry, and 2.2 open field yards per attempt. Georgia averaged nearly seven yards a carry last week. Pavia should find plenty of opportunities to pick up yards with his legs in this one. 

Vanderbilt hasn’t faced a passing attack anywhere close to this one this season. Utah State ranks 36th in passing success rate and 53rd in EPA/dropback, and tore Vandy’s secondary apart to the tune of 7.2 yards per catch and five scores. Simpson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all four of his starts. The Commodores rank sixth in EPA/rush and 47th in rush success rate against, so I expect the Tide will be throwing the ball just as much—if not more often—in this one. The total for the game sits at 56.5 points, and there should be plenty of points scored. Look for Simpson to put up a trio of touchdowns through the air

The 6-foot-4 receiver is third in targets for the Tide, and is benefitting from the attention paid to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. But he’s got the best catch rate of the three, and has now caught a touchdown in three consecutive games. Vanderbilt ranks 80th in points allowed per quality drive, and last week Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes threw three red zone touchdown passes to three different receivers in the first half. As a team, they hit five red zone TD passes to different receivers. Alabama’s wideouts are vastly better, and every player in the Vanderbilt secondary will be giving up a height advantage to Horton. At +135, he’s still an outstanding value to score anytime.

Vanderbilt is going to be a problem for Alabama. Not only because the Commodores are 5-0. Or because they have all the confidence in the world. Or because they beat the Crimson Tide last season, resulting in the goalposts famously walking down Broadway. But because Diego Pavia is a terrible matchup for them. Running QBs have given Kalen DeBoer's defense fits in two seasons in Tuscaloosa, which includes the season-opening loss to Tommy Castellanos and Florida State. I don't know if Vandy wins, but they keep it close.