Iowa @ Iowa State Picks & Props

Jacob Gill was Iowa’s leading receiver from last year, and he had at least 23 receiving yards in eight of his 13 starts. That includes 47 yards against Iowa State, as he caught four passes on the day. He had just one catch for 13 yards against Albany on two targets, but the Hawkeyes were focused on the run most of the day. While I don’t expect Gronowski to sling it around on Saturday against the Cyclones, I do expect we’ll see him forced to throw more often against a defense that will not allow Iowa to rush for 5.8 ypc. I believe he’ll also be more productive than he was a week ago when Iowa called a very bland offense.

Carson Hansen has carried the ball 25 times already this season and has yet to top 100 rushing yards. But Hansen isn’t just having trouble getting consistent yards. He’s also splitting carries. Abu Sama III had 14 carries for 43 yards against Kansas State, while Rocco Becht ran 12 times. Against South Dakota, Hansen had seven carries in the first half while Sama carried three times and scored a touchdown. Iowa ranked 26th last season in rushing yards allowed per game and has a very strong front seven. His lack of explosiveness and running lanes will be an issue for him here, and we could see Sama getting more carries as he did in the meeting last year. 

Last season, Gronowski rushed for over 20 yards in just five of his 15 starts, and topped 30 yards on only three occasions. He picked up only 17 yards on 10 carries in the season-opening defeat at Oklahoma State and was sacked twice. Iowa State limited Avery Johnson to just 21 rushing yards on 10 carries, an improvement on how the Cyclones defended mobile quarterbacks last year. If Gronowski holds onto the ball again here, those small gains from a week ago will turn into sacks and lost yardage

Offense may be hard to come by, per usual in this matchup. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht stands a tall task of generating a passing offense in a difficult matchup without two NFL receivers from a year ago, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. 

Low-scoring game, and Becht is missing his two WRs that combined for over 200 receiving yards in this matchup a year ago.

Iowa State is the better team. Math could argue the Cyclones should be favored by a touchdown, not by 2.5 or 3.5 points. But this rivalry demands caution, both as bookmakers set a spread and as bettors approach it. Let's take that caution a step further and trust the Iowa State moneyline. If the spread should arguably be higher, than there is also value in this moneyline.

The whole world knows to trust Iowa's defense. It remains as inevitable as death, taxes and Deion Sanders not knowing how to manage a late-game situation. But not enough people know to trust Iowa State's defense. With renewed health this season, it is even better than last year's underappreciated unit.

If these were not seen as intertwined rivals, this spread would be at least -4.5 in Iowa State's favor. Now, admittedly, the underdog has won ATS in four of the last six matchups between these two, and Iowa has won ATS in seven of the last nine games. But remove those biases from this conversation and the emphasis this week would be entirely about the Cyclones' superiority.