Iowa State @ Kansas State Picks & Props

In the matchup with the Cyclones last season, Brown had two of his five touchdowns on the season. While he did not score a touchdown against them in his freshman season, he did have five catches for 69 yards. 
He loves playing against this team, and I like his chances of finding the endzone again on Saturday in Dublin.

Becht lost two massive targets to the NFL from last season in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Without those two, Becht will likely rely on the run game a bit more. If he continues to improve his running ability, he will have a great shot to find the endzone with his feet against the Wildcats.

Kansas State's secondary has major question marks, and Sowell is a big-play receiver with size and speed who is good for at least one big catch per game. 

Rocco Becht and Gabe Burkle developed a rapport down the stretch last season, and the tight end will be relied upon early in this season.

Avery Johnson has consistently put up solid rushing numbers against conference foes, and he will find holes against a defensive line that struggled to prevent big plays on the ground last season. 

For a game with a total of just 50.5 that should fall short of that number thanks in part to the cold of Dublin, this spread moving off +3.0 is foolish. Iowa State has the better defense and the more experienced quarterback. This hook is too generous.

Rocco Becht might be one of the most underrated QBs in the country heading into this season. He threw for 3,505 yards and 25 TDs compared to just nine INTs in 2024. He loses his top two receivers but I think that's giving us some value here. ISU hit up the transfer portal to restock the WR room and have a talented TE group. But most importantly will play behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the conference. They'll give him time to throw a couple tuddies in Ireland. Something he did in nine of 14 games last season.

I'm joining my college football co-pilot, Douglas Farmer, in backing Iowa State on the moneyline here, and this sort of bleeds into that. I'm not ready to say Avery Johnson will make a leap in his development without seeing it on the field. Johnson finished the season completing just 54.6% of his passes over his final six games. Now, he'll face an elite LB unit for ISU behind an almost completely rebuilt offensive line. Mix in some cold weather in Dublin and Johnson might need the luck of the Irish to go Over this passing prop.

Northwestern beat Nebraska. Notre Dame beat Navy. Georgia Tech beat Florida State. Clearly, the nerdier school always wins in Dublin. Iowa State is nerdier than Kansas State, right? Probably? More earnestly, the Wildcats' offensive line is young and inexperienced. That OL has long been quickly developed by Conor Riley, now with the Dallas Cowboys. That uncertainty should be quickly exposed in a low-scoring game in Dublin against an Iowa State defense poised to surprise some people thanks to health after a disastrously-injured 2024.