Indiana @ Minnesota picks

The Minnesota guard loves the bright lights, especially at home, and I expect her to be aggressive with a trophy on the line. She’s knocked down 12 of her 24 shots across her past two contests, and her 3-point mark is up to 39% overall (after a 33% season in 2024). Buckle up for plenty of offense here – the Lynx ranked second with 85.3 PPG, the Fever are fourth at 84.1 PPG – and Williams’ ability to score at all three levels is one of the reasons that Minnesota arrives as the favorite.

Regardless of Clark’s status, Aliyah Boston is poised for another big stat line. She’s raised her game over the past two weeks, averaging 21.4 PPG across her last five contests, including a 31-point gem against the Seattle Storm last week, and I’m grabbing this price for Over 15.5 points here. The third-year forward has taken her efficiency up a notch this year, with a 60% mark from the field, and she’ll be asked to create buckets in the paint as well as battling Napheesa Collier at the other end of the floor. Foul trouble is the main red flag here, but Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have done a nice job stabilizing the Indy offense, and that fearlessness should carry over to tonight on the road.

It’s been a boom-or-bust year for Natasha Howard on the glass. Though she grabbed 13 rebounds on Friday in the victory over the Dallas Wings, the Under on 5.5 boards has been a winning ticket in seven of her last 10 games. I’m buying into that trend and fading Howard’s tally on the glass tonight against a Minnesota team that boasts three Top 25 rebounders in Collier, Jessica Shepard, and Alanna Smith. There just won’t be anything easy around the rim for Indiana. We’ve also seen Howard log fewer than 25 minutes in four of her past seven outings, including high-profile battles with the Seattle Storm and New York Liberty. The Fever may need her scoring (11.2 PPG) more than her rebounding here anyway, particularly if Clark remains out.

Collier leads the WNBA in points per game, she’s one of the top rebounders, and she’s a great facilitator at her position. The WNBA MVP favorite is averaging 24.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, good for 36.6 PRA. On the season, Indiana has allowed opponents to score 80.1 points per game, but over the last five, they’ve surrendered 86.8 per tilt. Indiana has allowed the fifth-most offensive rebounds per game, sixth-most second-chance points, and third-most points in the paint. In a meaningful game in front of the Lynx faithful, expect the MVP-favorite to do what she does best - a bit of everything. Collier should have no problem racking up 37+ PRA tonight.