Las Vegas @ New York picks

The Liberty's defense may be broken. Losing Jonquel Jones was always going to have an impact — her rebounding has been sorely missed in all facets — but this has been a problem beyond any expectations. In the 11 games since Jones first sprained her ankle, New York has ranked No. 9 in defensive rating, 19.9 points worse per 100 possessions than in the seven games before that. Taking this moneyline is a bet against the Liberty's broken defense.

There is an instinct to doubt A'ja Wilson right now. She has fallen short of this prop in 10 of 15 games this season, including in seven of her last 10 games. Then again, three of her shortcomings this season have been by just the hook, including two games she did not play more than 30 minutes because the Aces were winning by a rout. This will not be a rout. This is against Las Vegas's biggest rival, while New York is missing its best interior defender. Expect the reigning MVP to exploit Jonquel Jones's absence.

The Aces keep talking about a defensive identity remaining from their dynasty days, but it has not shown up much this season. They sit No. 9 in defensive rating this season, eight points per 100 possessions behind the Lynx's No. 1 defense. Part of Las Vegas's problem is giving up 34.3% on opposing 3-point attempts. Is anyone better at exploiting that kind of weakness than Sabrina Ionescu, who has hit 11-of-27 (40.7%) in her last three games?

Natasha Cloud is listed as questionable tonight with a hip worry. Media did not see her at this morning's shootaround. If Cloud is indeed sidelined, more playmaking will fall to Sabrina Ionescu, who has already cleared this prop in four of her last six games. Cloud assists on 35% of teammates' buckets when she is on the court, followed by Ionescu at 29.9%.