NBA Picks

The Pistons have been the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 4.3 shots made from the field per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, labeling this as a difficult matchup.. The Pistons have played at the 8th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Pistons have been the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Pistons have played at the 8th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.

This year, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 4.6 three attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Pacers, branding this as a difficult matchup.. The 5th-slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the New York Knicks.. With respect to drawing fouls, the New York Knicks's poor 21.2 foul shots per game as the road team ranks 4th-worst in the NBA this year.

It’s all hands on deck for the Raptors, and Barrett is the man in form. While Scottie Barnes is dealing with an illness and Brandon Ingram has had some tired outings this month, Barrett is soaring with 23.4 PPG on 60% shooting in March.

He’s scored 20+ points in five of his last six games, and there are positive signs with his 3-pointers after going 17-for-42 in his past eight contests. Ingram draws so much attention that Barrett likely won’t see Phoenix’s best defenders tonight, and he’s the key to Toronto getting back in the win column here.

Devin Booker is trading at +115 for the Over 5.5 assists against the Toronto Raptors, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -160. Toronto tends to defend star players with aggressive traps and early doubles, forcing the ball out of their hands. That approach can actually benefit Booker, who is surrounded by capable catch-and-shoot teammates. When the Raptors overhelp, it should create plenty of opportunities for Booker to generate potential assists. Booker is also coming off a 43-point performance against the Pacers on Thursday, which should make Toronto even more focused on limiting his scoring. The Raptors are known for their aggressive and sometimes chaotic rotations, which can leave gaps in the defense. If they overcommit to Booker, the dunker spot could easily be left open, creating high-value assist opportunities—especially for someone like Oso Ighodaro.

James Harden is fresh off his first 30-point game in nearly two months. He's scored 20+ points in five of his last seven outings. The Mavericks have just three wins in their last 21 games while allowing 120.2 ppg over that span – the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.

The matchup against Dallas is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Mavericks are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 4th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.6).. The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Rockets own a 22-8 home record, and they beat the Pelicans in H-Town by nine points in January. In fact, they’ve covered tonight’s spread in five of their last six meetings with New Orleans.

Also, Houston’s last two wins comfortably covered this spread, and the Pelicans are an atrocious 9-24 on the road. I expect the Rockets to grab a convincing victory.

This is a rogue number at FanDuel that significantly boosts the expected value of the wager. Murray is trading at +116 there, while several other books have him at minus money, and my projection makes the Over closer to -225. That creates a massive edge, and it doesn’t require Murray to play an outrageous number of minutes. He’s averaging 12.5 potential assists over his last five games, which is a huge number relative to a line of 5.5. Those potential assists have also come in somewhat limited playing time, as Murray has logged several games under 30 minutes during that stretch. From a matchup perspective, Murray should be able to put Alperen Sengun into pick-and-roll actions all night. Sengun has struggled defensively in those situations, which gives Murray opportunities to manipulate the coverage and create easy looks—whether it’s lobs to Yves Missi or pocket passes to Zion Williamson.

Even without a few key pieces, the Jazz continue to push the pace, score efficiently, and play little to no defense. Dropping 117 on the Knicks — a Top-6 defensive team — is impressive, and Utah shouldn’t have much trouble finding points against Portland’s 18th-ranked defense. On the other end, the Blazers should generate plenty of offense as well against the Jazz’s league-worst defense.

Cody Williams has averaged 11.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.2 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.. The 3rd-fastest tempo road offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Utah Jazz.. The Utah Jazz will likely see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Trail Blazers).. Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Utah Jazz grade out 5th-best in in the league while playing away from home with 13.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.. The matchup against Portland is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 4.0 foul shots per game this year when the Portland Trail Blazers are on their home court (7th-most in the NBA).

The Minnesota Timberwolves are listed as 5.5-point favorites against the Golden State Warriors, and that’s a number I’m comfortable backing as I make the line closer to 8. The key factor in this matchup is Minnesota’s size advantage, which becomes even more significant with Stephen Curry out of the lineup. When Curry plays, the Warriors can go small and use his gravity to pull Rudy Gobert away from the paint. Without that threat, Gobert can stay near the rim, allowing Minnesota to fully control the interior without being punished for playing big. That creates a difficult matchup for Golden State. Draymond Green simply doesn’t have the size to consistently deal with a frontcourt that includes Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid, especially with Anthony Edwards applying constant pressure at the rim. 

Anthony Edwards has taken his scoring to the next level, and his offensive prowess will be on full display tonight. Ant-Man is averaging 27.2 points per game at home and 31.8 on the road. He's scored 30+ in 31 of 56 games, including 19 of 27 away games.

Edwards dropped 32 in his first meeting with the Golden State Warriors, and he should have no problem getting 30 again. The Warriors lack size and physicality to throw at Edwards, and with Moses Moody out and De’Anthony Melton banged up, he could find some breathing room on the perimeter.

This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting PFs have totaled 0.9 three-pointers per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the LA Clippers, making this a hard matchup.. The Chicago Bulls check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

In terms of three-point shots, the Clippers's excellent 36.9% rate of successful threes as the home team places 7th-best in the league this year.. The 9th-quickest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the LA Clippers.. The LA Clippers are expected to get a boost in plays today from facing the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo visiting offense in the NBA this year (the Bulls).. This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.9 free throws per game (9th-most in the league) vs. the Bulls, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.