NBA Picks

The Atlanta Hawks have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, and with the Detroit Pistons missing Cade Cunningham, it feels like the market has overreacted to both factors—creating value on Detroit. I make the Pistons closer to a 5-point favorite in this matchup, and that’s even assuming Jalen Johnson plays, as he’s still questionable. Even without Cunningham, Detroit’s offense has leaned heavily into generating paint touches for Jalen Duren, which sets up well here. Atlanta struggles to protect the interior, and with Onyeka Okongwu undersized at center, Duren’s size and strength should consistently give him an edge inside. On the defensive end, Ausar Thompson stands out as a potential difference-maker. If Johnson does play, Thompson has the athleticism and defensive versatility to stay in front of him and limit his ability to create offense off the dribble. 

This year, the other team's starting SFs have shot 55.3% on field goals (best in the NBA) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, identifying this as a strong matchup.. The Pistons will likely see a rise in opportunities in this game from facing the 3rd-quickest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Atlanta Hawks).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons rank 2nd-best in in the NBA with 14.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

During the Los Angeles Lakers’ winning streak, head coach J.J. Reddick tightened his rotation and really leaned into the starters. That had Austin Reaves averaging a team high 38.8 minutes per game over the past 10 showings. He scored 23.4 points during this span, topping his player points prop in six of the last nine outings. But with the streak over and game script calling for L.A. to cruise to a win over Indiana, Reddick will gear down his stars. Reaves’ player projections range from 22.1 to 20.1 points. My number comes out to 21.25, which should have the Under 22.5 priced around -140. 

The 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Lakers.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 3rdworst in in the league with only 9.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

With Joel Embiid and Paul George possibly returning to the lineup tonight, the 76ers will roll over the Bulls in Philadelphia.

The 76ers have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games on their home court.. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 10.6 shot attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Bulls, making this a hard matchup.. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.7 free throws per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Bulls, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

The Heat finally have their lineup healthy after a month of players coming in and out. That takes pressure off Bam Adebayo, who has seen his minutes and usage soar the past month. Bam's totals are still kind of cooked since his 83-point performance but I expect a return to the norm tonight, with projections below 19 points at Cleveland.

I make this matchup closer to a pick’em between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, so getting the Heat at +3.5 is a number I’m comfortable backing. This sets up as a difficult spot for Cleveland, coming off a highly competitive game against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday and now facing another physical opponent in Miami on the second night of a back-to-back. From a matchup standpoint, I like Miami’s ability to create problems at the point of attack, with Davion Mitchell capable of making things uncomfortable for Donovan Mitchell. Even if Jarrett Allen returns, the Heat have the size to hold up, with Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware giving them a frontcourt that can match Cleveland physically. After dealing with constant lineup turnover all season, they’re finally playing at full strength. With Andrew Wiggins back and Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez providing scoring off the bench, this roster looks far more complete. 

Oklahoma City’s elite defense and Boston’s league-slowest pace create a half-court battle. Both teams are comfortable grinding possessions, and their last meeting totaled just 206 points. Expect a playoff-style game where scoring efficiency drops and possessions become limited.

The Thunder have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA away from their home court this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games on the road.

Stephon Castle is averaging 16.5 points per game in 2025-26, starting 59 of the 60 games he’s appeared in. He's cashed the Over in points in five of his last seven contests as well. 

In terms of scoring, the Grizzlies's fantastic 116.8 points per game measures as the 8th-highest in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The Grizzlies have played at the 5th-speediest pace in the league while at home this year.. The Grizzlies will likely get a boost in possessions today from competing against the 6th-fastest tempo away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the San Antonio Spurs).

The Jazz rank as the 5th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games.

The Washington Wizards have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Washington Wizards have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games as the visting team.. The Jazz have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Wizards.

When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Timberwolves.. The matchup against Houston may be a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.0 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets are the visiting squad (2nd-least in the NBA).

The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Rockets.. The Timberwolves have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which ought to raise possessions for the Rockets.. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, and the Rockets grade out best in in the league with 15.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.5 assists per game along with 17.7 potential assists, which shows how often he is creating scoring chances for teammates. Jokic has recorded at least 11 assists in seven of his last nine games. Against a Dallas defense that leaks like a sieve, his assist total should soar. 

In terms of scoring, the Denver Nuggets's fantastic 120.9 points per game settles in as the most in the league this year.. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 8th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Denver Nuggets.

It’s no secret that the Milwaukee Bucks' offense has struggled this season, and that’s been strikingly evident across the team’s last 10 games. In that span, the Bucks rank 29th in scoring at a paltry 107.2 points per game. They scored 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10, and they were held under 100 points in two of their last three.

On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the fifth-fewest points to opponents across their last 10 games (108.8) and sport the second-best defensive rating at 106.9. The Blazers have held opponents to 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10 outings, including two of their last three overall and two of their last three at home.

Tonight’s matchup of a deflated offense traveling on the road to face a surging defense offers the perfect storm for the Bucks to post a dud in the scoring column. I’ll take the home team to put the clamps on Milwaukee’s lackluster offense.

When it comes to shots from downtown, the Trail Blazers's unimpressive 34.0% rate of drained threes measures as the worst in the NBA this year.. The Bucks have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Trail Blazers.

Golden State has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 home games. 

Gui Santos has tallied 15.3 points per game over the last 10 games, 7.0 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The matchup vs. the Nets is a favorable one; they have allowed the most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (19.5).. The 8th-speediest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. The Warriors rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. This year, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Nets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

You can play the over 6.5 assists at -140 for Darius Garland, but I much prefer attacking the alternate line of 8+ assists at +130. I price 8+ closer to -145, so there’s a clear edge on the alternate number. This matchup sets up well for Garland’s playmaking. The Raptors run a heavy switching scheme, which should allow him to hunt mismatches and dictate the offense as the primary ball handler. If he can force smaller defenders onto bigs like Brook Lopez and John Collins, it creates easy scoring opportunities around the rim—and high-value assist chances. Toronto’s aggressive approach on the offensive glass is another factor. It often leads to transition opportunities going the other way, where Garland can push the pace and generate easy assists with hit-ahead passes. When you combine the matchup dynamics with his role, this profiles as a strong spot for Garland to clear his higher assist ceiling.

The 3rd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year has been the LA Clippers.. The LA Clippers are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Raptors).. The LA Clippers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).