Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 21, 2026
CLE
@
NY
Thu, May 21 • 8:00 PM ET
NY -6.5 (-105)
New York showed plenty of rust in Game 1 after an eight-day layoff but still controlled most of the key metrics despite trailing by 22 in the fourth quarter. The Cavs won’t catch them flat again. The Knicks lead all playoff teams in net rating and effective field goal percentage, while Cleveland’s road efficiency has fallen off a cliff. The Cavs also looked badly rattled late in Game 1 which is a big red flag the the MSG crowd ready to errupt again.
James Harden o17.5 Points Scored (-120)
The Knicks blitzed James Harden in the first half of Game 1, sending extra defenders to force the ball out of his hands. He scored only seven points on 3-for-5 shooting and couldn’t get inside to draw fouls in the opening two frames. However, Cleveland was able to skip the ball to open hands and that built the big lead. New York’s crazy comeback started when it switched up its defensive scheme in the second half and played Harden straight up. He took 10 FGAs and got to the foul line six times but walked away with just eight points in the 2H due to poor shooting (2 for 10). Harden’s usage jumped from 23.7% in the 1H to 29.2% in the 2H and if the Knicks stick to what worked, Harden will get plenty of scoring opportunities but the Cavs won’t generate so many wide open looks. Projections are bullish on “The Beard” with most models north of his 17.5-point total, including a few on the happy side of 20 points.
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