NBA Picks

Utah's big lineup of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jaxson Hayes presents an interesting matchup against a Pelicans offense built around Zion Williamson's downhill scoring. New Orleans also limited Herb Jones, its best perimeter defender, in the opener. That decision should benefit Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson. As a Jazz backer, I'd welcome another game with Jones seeing limited minutes.

Perhaps by default due to a lack of viable options surrounding him, former Laker and current Clipper Rui Hachimura is being thrust into a No. 2 role behind Garland that he's not well equipped to have.

His 13 shot attempts against Sacramento were the second-most on the Clippers, but Hachimura only converted three in 32 minutes for 10 total points.

He'll need to bounce back in a major way here to go Over this prop and score at least 18 points. In his last season with the Lakers, though, the 6-foot-8 forward only recorded lines of 18 points or more in 13.2% of his games played. 

This number is just too big, so try not to fall in love with the mindset that the Clippers have to feed Hachimura looks out of necessity, when that roster will take whatever it can get from whomever it can get it from.  

If 74% feels too expensive for Portland, I disagree. I price the Trail Blazers closer to 81% favorites against Sacramento. Portland has the edge across the board, with Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson capable of relentlessly attacking the Kings' weak perimeter defense. Meanwhile, I expect Domantas Sabonis to struggle against Donovan Clingan's interior presence. Give me Portland on the moneyline.

With Kon Knueppel and Coby White out, Brandon Miller is the focal point of Charlotte’s offense. Andrew Wiggins is a tough matchup, especially with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo providing help defense and rim protection. On the other end, Naz Reid and Moussa Diabate could struggle to contain Giannis and Bam. I like Miami here, pricing the Heat at 61% compared to a 53% market probability.

Even with Joel Embiid questionable, and his potential absence factored into my projection, I see value on Philadelphia at 83% against Milwaukee. Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown should consistently pressure Myles Turner’s drop coverage, while the veteran depth of Anfernee Simons and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gives the 76ers an edge as the game progresses. I expect Philadelphia to exploit Milwaukee’s youthful bench and maintain its advantage.

The Cavaliers have had an embarrassing start, but their home opener is a chance to respond. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden need to take control offensively and remind Egor Demin and Nolan Traore how much they still have to learn. Cleveland is trading at 82% against Brooklyn, but I price the Cavs closer to 86%, leaving value even at this high probability.

Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, raising questions about Kyrie Irving’s workload. I like trades where we have an edge even if a key opponent plays, with added upside if his minutes are limited. I don't expect Irving to sit during Dallas' home opener, but load management is possible for both him and Cooper Flagg. Even projecting 28 minutes for Irving, I have the Spurs at 83%.

I don't see Jalen Smith holding up at center against a frontcourt featuring Anthony Davis, Deandre Ayton, and Alex Sarr. Even with Washington on the second night of a back-to-back, I'm not overly concerned about Davis' status given his stated goal of playing all 82 games. If he sits, Sarr and Ayton can still thrive, with Trae Young creating easy looks through two-man actions. Chicago lacks the personnel to consistently defend those looks.

With Houston on the second night of a back-to-back, I've removed Fred VanVleet and projected Marcus Smart at point guard. Even with that adjustment, I price the Rockets at 64% against Atlanta, well above the 55% market probability. The Hawks' guard-heavy lineup lacks the size to match Houston's frontcourt, giving Alperen Sengun room to attack inside and Kevin Durant opportunities to exploit smaller defenders.

Yves Missi and Derik Queen are the only obstacles between Nikola Jokic and a triple-double Saturday night. The Pelicans are also playing the second night of a back-to-back after facing Utah in Salt Lake City, adding another altitude challenge. Denver is trading at a high probability, but I still see value on the home team at 86%.

The Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back and already short-handed without Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler. Steve Kerr also plans to manage Stephen Curry’s minutes early in the season, creating uncertainty around his workload against Phoenix. I see value on the Suns at 64%, even assuming Curry plays more than 30 minutes, as Golden State’s depth and schedule concerns could create an even bigger edge.