NBA Picks

Atlanta has played excellent defense throughout the series, punctuated by forcing Jalen Brunson into a turnover at the end of Game 3. But that hasn’t prevented Brunson from being productive, and New York is far too productive offensively to not break out, as it ranked second in offensive efficiency in the NBA this year. I'm expecting Brunson to step up for the Knicks tonight and hit his scoring total.

Nikola Jokic hasn’t been quite as effective in the last two games of the series, with Rudy Gobert doing a fairly good job of locking down the center. But the Denver Nuggets star has still averaged 25.5 points and 15 rebounds over the past two games, and it’s hard to imagine Jokic won’t come up with a response – perhaps even moving the ball around more if he can’t be as efficient as he’d like to be in his scoring. At even money, I like Jokic to get back to his all-around excellence by recording a triple-double tonight.

Barnes was everywhere in Game 3, with 33 points, 11 assists and relentless defense to slow down Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, and he’s gone past this points prop O/U number in all three contests so far.

Though Barnes is most comfortable as a playmaker, the Toronto game plan has shoved him into a bigger scoring role. He’s averaging 26.7 PPG in the series on 54% shooting, and I expect Darko Rajakovic to squeeze another 40-minute shift out of the Raptors’ main man.

San Antonio is 24-17-1 ATS on the road and 14-12-1 ATS as the road favorite. The visiting team covered the spread in 25 of 45 games when favored by at least 5.5 points, including a 10-7 mark when favored by that many on the road.

Portland was comfortably defeated in Games 1 and 3, and it took a mid-game injury to Victor Wembanyama and a career scoring night from Scoot Henderson to come away with a three-point win in Game 2. Wemby’s return should fuel the Spurs to victory, as they look ahead to Game 5 and a gentleman’s sweep at home.

While Philadelphia's bench players are getting exposed in the post in Embiid's absence, it highlights an overall Boston advantage in depth. The Celtics' bench outscored the Sixers' bench 35-14. They also logged significantly more minutes—92 to 52.

For the series, the bench scoring mismatch is 92-62 in Boston's favor, and the bench's minutes played are 264-225. The longer the series goes on, the more it will benefit the Boston starters.

Through the first three games of the series, Smart has averaged 28.6 points+assists while logging 36 minutes per game. His usage has increased from 15.1 in the regular season to 23.5 in the postseason. He finished with 23 points+assists in Game 1 and followed it up with 32 and 31 in Games 2 and 3, respectively.

Houston’s defense has been poor and undisciplined in the postseason. The Rockets have surrendered the third-most free-throw attempts (28.7), third-most assists (26) and highest three-point percentage (46.1). Houston’s 110.3 defensive rating ranks 10th, and the team has allowed the eighth-most points (106.7).

Smart has averaged 8.3 assists and knocked down 8-of-16 triples through the first three games of the series, and the matchup with Houston sets him up favorably to have another successful performance as a scorer and facilitator.