NBA Picks

I don't like this matchup for the Chicago Bulls. With Nic Claxton out, Jalen Smith should see more minutes at center, while Tyler Herro and Myles Turner can exploit Chicago's drop and switch coverages. Turner's ability to stretch the floor adds another wrinkle. Milwaukee can get the city buzzing with a home-opening win ahead of Game 1 of the World Series. I price the Bucks closer to 58% favorites, giving me an edge at the current market price.

The New York Knicks starting 0-2 would be quite the storyline if they fall to both Philadelphia and Boston out of the gate. The Celtics are trading as 56% favorites, but I price them closer to 60%. Mitchell Robinson's familiarity with Karl-Anthony Towns and his ability to make life difficult for the Knicks big man is another factor working in Boston's favor.

The Atlanta Hawks impressed with a win in Orlando, but I'll back Charlotte at 45% in its home opener. The Hornets have offensive limitations without Coby White and Kon Knueppel, but Naz Reid and Grayson Allen can provide the shooting and spacing to create driving lanes against Onyeka Okongwu. Brandon Miller faces a tough matchup against Atlanta's point-of-attack defense, but I trust Charlotte's shooters to deliver.

The Toronto Raptors’ 13-4 record straight up (11-5-1 against the spread) versus the Washington Wizards across their last 17 meetings since 2021 already suggests that Friday’s next encounter will likely go in the favor of the away side.

Keep in mind, however, that none of those games featured the likes of superstars Anthony Davis and Trae Young.

Nonetheless, Toronto’s commanding defensive pressure should be enough to eke out a cover at -7.5 points on the road, which is a number I'd take up to -9.5. It just held the Chicago Bulls, albeit a depleted and gastrointestinal illness-ridden Bulls, to 92 points en route to a 43-point blowout on Wednesday.

The vibes are strong for the Wizards after winning their first game of a season since 2022, but the Raptors are a cold dose of reality ready to rain on their parade. 

This feels like an overreaction to one game. Minnesota dismantled Miami, while Orlando lost at home to Atlanta, and now the Timberwolves are 54% road favorites? I price the Magic as 54% favorites, making Orlando an easy buy at Polymarket's current price. Jalen Suggs' aggressive defense and Franz Wagner's length give Orlando options to disrupt LaMelo Ball's playmaking, while the Magic have the size and individual defenders to challenge both Ball and Anthony Edwards.

Indiana’s depth and size give it the edge, and I’ll trade the spread to -6.5. Dallas will be shorthanded in the frontcourt, and Indiana can exploit the Mavs’ dearth of frontcourt options with Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac, who combined for 46 points and 24 rebounds in the opener. Indiana can still attack on the perimeter and push the pace in transition, but the presence of Zubac gives the Pacers new offensive depth in pick-and-roll situations and second-chance opportunities.

The Pistons shouldn't be underdogs here. I price Detroit closer to 55% favorites, creating value on a healthy team that won 60 games and claimed the East's No. 1 seed last season. Isaiah Joe and John Collins give Cade Cunningham more options against Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Detroit added shooting for matchups like this, while Duncan Robinson gets a chance at revenge against his former team.

De'Aaron Fox is questionable with a wrist injury, Keldon Johnson is questionable, and Tobias Harris is out. Despite their own health concerns after facing OKC, the Spurs remain heavy favorites. I see slight value on Houston at 35% if Fox plays, but that edge grows considerably if he's ruled out. Without Fox, Amen Thompson can focus on disrupting Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, weakening San Antonio's offensive attack.

Utah's big lineup of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jaxson Hayes presents an interesting matchup against a Pelicans offense built around Zion Williamson's downhill scoring. New Orleans also limited Herb Jones, its best perimeter defender, in the opener. That decision should benefit Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson. As a Jazz backer, I'd welcome another game with Jones seeing limited minutes.

The Lakers are the better team, but 78% favorites is too high. I'll back the Clippers at 23%, where the value lies. Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. give the Clippers defenders to throw at Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, while Brook Lopez's shooting can pull Walker Kessler away from the rim. I expect a closer game than the market suggests, and at this price, trusting the math makes sense.

Ty Jerome erupted for 45 points on incredible efficiency in the opener and now faces his former team. I see the Warriors as a team in decline, with questions about heavy minutes for Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, especially without Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis. Memphis is young and hungry, and at 43%, the Grizzlies are my side in this matchup.

If 74% feels too expensive for Portland, I disagree. I price the Trail Blazers closer to 81% favorites against Sacramento. Portland has the edge across the board, with Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson capable of relentlessly attacking the Kings' weak perimeter defense. Meanwhile, I expect Domantas Sabonis to struggle against Donovan Clingan's interior presence. Give me Portland on the moneyline.