Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 21, 2026
CLE
@
NY
Thu, May 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Jalen Brunson o6.5 Total Assists (+111)
Jalen Brunson came up short for us on this prop in Game 1 with only six assists, but if the sportsbooks are going to hang 6.5 again at plus money, I’m hitting the button without hesitation. Nothing I saw in Game 1 changed my opinion on this number. If anything, I feel even more confident attacking it in Game 2. Brunson absolutely cooked James Harden in isolation, and I have a hard time believing the Cleveland Cavaliers will continue letting him attack Harden one-on-one over and over again. More help defense and double teams should create additional assist opportunities for Brunson. Even though Brunson attempted 29 field goals in Game 1, he still finished with 12 potential assists, which is very encouraging in my opinion. I price the Over 6.5 assists closer to -165.
NY -6.5 (-105)
New York showed plenty of rust in Game 1 after an eight-day layoff but still controlled most of the key metrics despite trailing by 22 in the fourth quarter. The Cavs won’t catch them flat again. The Knicks lead all playoff teams in net rating and effective field goal percentage, while Cleveland’s road efficiency has fallen off a cliff. The Cavs also looked badly rattled late in Game 1 which is a big red flag the the MSG crowd ready to errupt again.
OKC
@
SA
Fri, May 22 • 8:30 PM ET
Victor Wembanyama o25.5 Points Scored (-105)
After taking 21 of his 25 shots in the paint in Game 1, Wembanyama attempted just 8 of 16 FGAs in the key on Wednesday. The constant abuse from the OKC defense wore him down late and contributed to a more passive outing. He also reached the foul line only twice despite plenty of questionable contact. With the San Antonio Spurs home for Game 3, I expect a more aggressive Wembanyama and friendlier whistles from the officials. Wembanyama sees a near 3-point uptick in scoring at home compared to the road and Game 3 projections sit as high as 27+ points. Those forecasts include injured guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper. Should one or both guards sit, Wemby shoulders more of the scoring load.
After a physical Game 2 took its toll on both rosters, the Spurs and Thunder are missing complementary pieces to their offense. That means they’ll lean extra hard on their star players. I expect more scoring from the stripe from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama after the refs swallowed their whistles in Game 2. Points with the clock stopped is a recipe for Overs.
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