NBA Picks

Only eight players in the league competed against the Magic three or more times last season and averaged more than 28 points per contest in those outings, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker being one of them. 

His efficiency was off the charts, converting 56.1% from the field, 47.4% from behind the arc, and 87% at the charity stripe. 

Wednesday's prop is currently set at 18.5 points, which Alexander-Walker exceeded four out of four times, punctuated by a career-best 41-point outburst in a 12-point win on March 16. 

The Wizards are once again expected to play at one of the NBA's fastest paces this season and likely have their fair share of defensive challenges in the process. Meanwhile, the Bucks feature a trio of new key components -- Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez and Kel'el Ware -- that also ran up and down the court last season in Miami, and both teams ranked in the bottom 10 last year in opponent effective possession ratio.

While it was a bit overshadowed by the addition of Antetokounmpo, Klay Thompson also adds an extra dimension to the Heat offense this year. Thompson has made 3.1 threes per game for his career, shooting 40.9% from deep.

Now 36 years old, Thompson doesn't get as much offensive usage as he once did. But even coming off the bench for the Dallas Mavericks and playing only 21.7 minutes per game last year, he still averaged 2.9 threes a night, and the high-tempo Miami offense will mean even more chances for the sharpshooter. 

Barnes averaged 7.3 rebounds in three meetings with Chicago last season, including a nine-rebound performance on Feb. 19. His ability to crash the defensive glass and push the ball in transition should keep him involved on both sides of the game, too. With the Bulls thin up front, expect Barnes to make his presence known - especially if he plays around 33 minutes, which he averaged last season.

The Pacers need Nembhard to take on a big load as a ball-handler and  one of the engines of the offense.

While Tyrese Haliburton is cleared for a full workload, Rick Carlisle may not want to put all the playmaking responsibilities on the shoulders of his star guard as he ramps up and finds his game.

The absence of TJ McConnell also helps. Isolating games in which Nembhard logged 25+ minutes without McConnell last season, he averaged 9.8 assists and 15.0 potential assists.

Sengun dished 5+ assists in 56 of 72 appearances, and he reached that mark in both games against the Mavericks, excluding a Jan. 3 meeting in which he played only one minute.

With Fred VanVleet back, it’s unclear how ball-handling responsibilities will shake out between he and Amen Thompson. 

Sengun’s role as a playmaker out of the post remains clear, as he’ll have ample opportunities to find cutters in the lane and kick out to perimeter shooters. I’m happy to trade this up to 5.5.

With both offenses looking to be aggressive in terms of field goal attempts, there will be a surplus of rebounding chances. Kessler has a notable size edge over the Warriors’ frontcourt, with Kristaps Porzingis out and backup big Charles Bassey doubtful. That leaves the smaller Green and the slower Horford to share center duties. His projections for tonight sit between 11+ and 12+ boards but given the matchup and injection of tempo for both teams, I like Kessler to corral at least a dozen rebounds for L.A.

Sacramento didn't do me any favors in the preseason, but I'm surprised to see the Kings trading as 36% underdogs against the Clippers. Los Angeles is already near the bottom of the West and will be without Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, and Max Strus. I'm not sold on Sacramento's starting five, but I prefer its lineup in this matchup. At 36% on the moneyline, I'll hit the button on the Kings.