Houston @ Denver Picks & Props
HOU vs DEN Picks
NBA Picks
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
MoneyLine
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst
Houston’s offense has struggled in clutch moments this year, perhaps best emphasized by Kevin Durant going 1-of-4 for three points in nearly 15 minutes of fourth quarter and overtime action earlier this week against Denver. The Nuggets will pull almost anyone into clutch minutes if need be, and at that point, the Nuggets have to be trusted in this matchup. They did win in overtime against the Rockets earlier this week.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have notched 20.4 points per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, marking this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.. Offensive rebounds save possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Rockets rank best in in the league with 16.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.. Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 5.0 free throws per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, easily managing to draw fouls.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jamal Murray has registered 28.7 points per game over the last 10 games, 3.5 more than he's registered in all games this season.. When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's excellent 125.6 points per game measures as the most in the NBA this year.. This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PGs have shot 45.5% on field goal attempts (9th-best in the league) against the Houston Rockets, designating this as a good matchup.. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 5.2 foul shots per game (5th-highest in the league) vs. the Rockets, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nikola Jokic has scored 33.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.6 higher than he's scored overall this year.. When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's excellent 125.6 points per game measures as the most in the NBA this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 21.7% on three-pointers (weakest in the league) against the Houston Rockets, designating this as a tough matchup.. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 7th-least up-tempo tempo in the league this year.. The Houston Rockets have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease plays for the Nuggets.. The Denver Nuggets check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
HOU vs DEN Consensus Picks
64% picking Denver
Total Picks HOU 220, DEN 394
68% picking Houston vs Denver to go Over
Total PicksHOU 264, DEN 123
HOU vs DEN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o6.5 Points Scored
8.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
21.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o20.5 Points Scored
23.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
19.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Nikola Jokic
(C)
o26.5 Points Scored
29.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
18.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Peyton Watson
(SF)
u11.5 Points Scored
10.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
u13.5 Points Scored
12.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Alperen Sengun
(C)
u22.5 Points Scored
22.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o7.5 Points Scored
8.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
0.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
u15.5 Points Scored
15.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
Amen Thompson
(SF)
o17.5 Points Scored
17.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o8.5 Total Rebounds
9.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
18.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Amen Thompson
(SF)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
8.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o1.5 Total Rebounds
2.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Bruce Brown
(PG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
2.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Kevin Durant
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
20.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Kevin Durant
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Peyton Watson
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Amen Thompson
(SF)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
3.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Nikola Jokic
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-5.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
28.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
27.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
14.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Nikola Jokic
(C)
u9.5 Total Assists
9.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Jamal Murray
(PG)
u6.5 Total Assists
6.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Amen Thompson
(PG)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Kevin Durant
(SF)
u4.5 Total Assists
4.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Josh Okogie
(SG)
u1.5 Total Assists
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o6.5 Total Assists
6.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
POINTS SCORED
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o6.5 Points Scored
8.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
21.32%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o20.5 Points Scored
23.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
19.31%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Nikola Jokic
(C)
o26.5 Points Scored
29.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
18.7%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Peyton Watson
(SF)
u11.5 Points Scored
10.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.68%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
u13.5 Points Scored
12.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.28%
EV
POINTS SCORED
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Alperen Sengun
(C)
u22.5 Points Scored
22.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o7.5 Points Scored
8.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
0.04%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
u15.5 Points Scored
15.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.3%
EV
POINTS SCORED
Amen Thompson
(SF)
o17.5 Points Scored
17.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.36%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o8.5 Total Rebounds
9.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
18.38%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.1%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.67%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
10.46%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Amen Thompson
(SF)
o6.5 Total Rebounds
8.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o1.5 Total Rebounds
2.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.51%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Bruce Brown
(PG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.3%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
2.5%
EV
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Kevin Durant
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.83%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
20.97%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Josh Okogie
(SG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.85%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Kevin Durant
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.81%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Peyton Watson
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.4%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Amen Thompson
(SF)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.91%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Jamal Murray
(PG)
o2.5 3-Pointers Made
3.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.77%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.84%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Nikola Jokic
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.3%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
-5.95%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.06%
EV
3-POINTERS MADE
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.48%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Bruce Brown
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
28.56%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Cameron Johnson
(PF)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
27.09%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
RS
Reed Sheppard
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
3.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
14.3%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Tim Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
10.83%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Nikola Jokic
(C)
u9.5 Total Assists
9.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.55%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Jamal Murray
(PG)
u6.5 Total Assists
6.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Amen Thompson
(PG)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.09%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Kevin Durant
(SF)
u4.5 Total Assists
4.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.48%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Josh Okogie
(SG)
u1.5 Total Assists
1.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.24%
EV
TOTAL ASSISTS
Alperen Sengun
(C)
o6.5 Total Assists
6.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
HOU vs DEN Trends
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Over
Under
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HOU vs DEN Top User Picks
Houston Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ollywood | 5-5-0 | +13400 |
| 2 | stakay125 | 5-5-0 | +11200 |
| 3 | Enelra18 | 4-6-0 | +10400 |
| 4 | greenhouse12 | 8-2-0 | +9650 |
| 5 | teslaxyz | 6-4-0 | +9100 |
| 6 | popthebubble | 7-3-0 | +9050 |
| 7 | YIAYIA | 7-3-0 | +8560 |
| 8 | Haybob | 5-5-0 | +8400 |
| 9 | hughjazz6969 | 7-3-0 | +7750 |
| 10 | Alan Palmer | 6-4-0 | +7600 |
| All Rockets Money Leaders | |||
Denver Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | aerison12 | 8-2-0 | +13850 |
| 2 | ldcpicks | 9-1-0 | +13550 |
| 3 | sniperpick | 8-2-0 | +11950 |
| 4 | CigarSt22 | 4-6-0 | +11410 |
| 5 | ASkinsFanInDixi | 6-4-0 | +10850 |
| 6 | QueenofQueens | 7-3-0 | +9500 |
| 7 | ckope1 | 7-3-0 | +9320 |
| 8 | Varart | 9-1-0 | +9200 |
| 9 | Abbyllar | 7-3-0 | +9150 |
| 10 | CHEOAPONTE | 6-4-0 | +8900 |
| All Nuggets Money Leaders | |||