NBA Picks

The Wizards aren't even trying at this point, while the Sixers are healthy and motivated to move up the Eastern Conference standings. Even on the road and with a large spread, I like Philadelphia to cover tonight.

Quin Snyder’s group is 8-2 in their last 10, and they’ve covered tonight’s spread in back-to-back contests. The Atlanta Hawks have also won four straight versus the Orlando Magic, covering the four-point spread in all of those meetings.

Atlanta has been the far better team, ranking 6th in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Orlando at 23rd. The Hawks have also dominated this matchup, going 3-0 straight up and ATS this season, including double-digit wins in the last two games. This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Magic, playing their second game of a back-to-back and third in four nights, with three of their starters playing minutes into the high 30s last night. Atlanta is on a 12-2 ATS tear as a favorite.

In regard to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's poor 32.4% rate of successful threes playing at home comes in as the weakest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The matchup vs. Boston is a challenging one for shots from the field; when the Boston Celtics are on the road, the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 4th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (38.1%).. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from facing the least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year (the Boston Celtics).. This year, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

In regard to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's poor 32.4% rate of successful threes playing at home comes in as the weakest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from facing the least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year (the Boston Celtics).

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from being pitted against the least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the New York Knicks).. The Grizzlies rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from being pitted against the least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the New York Knicks).. The Grizzlies rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Indiana no longer needs to emphasize losing. But know who should? The Chicago Bulls should emphasize losing. They are barely holding off the Bucks for the No. 9 spot in the lottery. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Bulls have lost four straight, including at Memphis as 5-point favorites.

Both the Bulls and Pacers are terrible defensively and play at a fast pace. They're also eliminated from the playoffs and will likely give even less effort on D which is why the total is set at a whopping 249. That has me taking the Over 24.5 points for Indiana's leading scorer Pascal Siakam (23.8 ppg). The All-Star forward has been dealing with lingering knee pain but is probable for tonight. He's fresh off a 30-point performance against Miami and has dropped 25+ points in five of his last nine games. 

The Rockets have the edge at every position tonight. Is Kyle Kuzma really going to slow down Kevin Durant? Houston should take advantage of Milwaukee’s ambivalence early, and the second half should become an unpredictable exhibition.

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SGs have shot 24.8% on threes (lowest in the NBA) against the Rockets, designating this as a hard matchup.. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.. The Houston Rockets have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.

If sticking it to the Raptors again wasn’t enough motivation to feed him the ball, DeRozan is just nine points away from 17th on the NBA’s All-Time scoring list and 51 points out of 16th. Sacramento should be actively looking to get DeRozan involved early on with little else to play for. Projections are mixed on the Kings star. Some sit just shy of 17 points while others call for closer to 19 points for DeRozan. Given his rest, usage and motivations, I like him to top 17.5 points tonight.

This sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for Toronto, who can’t afford to slip further in the standings. We saw a similar scenario about a week ago when the Raptors lost to the Suns, then turned around the next night and beat the Jazz in Utah by 16. While recent form favors Toronto (10th vs 26th in net rating over the last 10 games), their home dominance stands out even more—they rank 3rd in net rating at home since the start of March. Sacramento, meanwhile, continues their race to the bottom, with five double-digit losses in their last seven games.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is always filling up the stat sheet but his work on the glass lately has been especially impressive. The superstar center has pulled down at least 14 boards in five-straight games and is averaging 16.4 rpg over that span. Tonight, Jokic and the Nuggets are coming off two days of rest and travel to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz tonight. Since the start of January, Utah is 26th in the league in rebounding rate (48.3%) while playing at the second-fastest pace. That should lead to plenty of rebounding opportunities for Joker. 

The Denver Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.. The 2nd-fastest pace away team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.. The Jazz have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to increase opportunities for the Nuggets.

The San Antonio Spurs’ 7-footer averaged a dozen rebounds throughout March on 17.3 rebounding chances across 15 games and closed the month with 16, 15, 15, and 15 boards in his last four outings. It helps that the Spurs defense is tightening the screws down the stretch, checking foes to less than 44% success from the floor. Player projections call for Wemby to dominate the window again, with forecasts between 12.6 and 14.2 rebounds tonight.

The race for NBA MVP is heating up and it's become clear that Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama wants it. The ultra talented big man is coming off a a game where he scored 41 points on a season-high 27 shots while adding 16 boards. Wemby is averaging 28.2 ppg over the last three weeks and has grabbed at least 15 boards in four straight games. He should dominate the Warriors who are weak in the frontcourt with Kristaps Porzingis, Quinton Post, and Al Horford all injured.