Oklahoma City @ Indiana picks

Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 5.9 rebounds per game this postseason and cleared this prop in 10 of 19 games. To get this number still at positive odds is a delightful value.

Jalen Williams is a much better 3-point shooter than his recent performances would indicate. Player projections for Game 4 range from 1.8 to 2.1 made shots from beyond the arc from Williams, solid value to buyback the Over.

Consider Game 3. Toppin went 0-of-3 from deep and scored only eight points. He was still a +18 in fewer than 28 minutes, in a game Indiana won by nine. Toppin is going to see only more playing time. And more playing time will lead to more looks from deep. As long as this prop is available at positive odds, it should be bet.

Toppin went 0-of-3 from deep in Game 3 and scored only eight points. He was still a +18 in fewer than 28 minutes, in a game Indiana won by nine. Toppin is going to see only more playing time.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's best path toward a Game 4 victory will be dominating the ball. One conversation while writing up these bets included yours truly wondering, “I can’t find a way to back OKC besides ‘SGA goes OFF.’” That should include a bevy of shots, not of playmaking.

Indiana’s defense has long been underappreciated. Its perimeter defense, in particular, cuts down on opponents’ successes from deep. The Thunder found some long-range success on Wednesday, hitting 10-of-22 (45.5%), and even then, SGA managed only four assists.

The matchup vs. the Pacers is a positive one; they have allowed the most points per game in the league to opposing starting SGs this year (19.0).. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 9th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 5th-best in in the league as the away team with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.. This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SGs have attempted 5.3 foul shots per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Pacers, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Luguentz Dort has converted 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's made from three in all games this year.. Luguentz Dort has been on the court for 29.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 78th percentile.. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 9th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 5th-best in in the league as the away team with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

This year, opposing starting PGs have tallied 4.6 three attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Pacers, labeling this as a challenging matchup.. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling usually worsens stat production in all facets of the game.

Obi Toppin has converted 58.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 6.1% more than he's put through the hoop overall this season while playing at home.. The Pacers check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while playing at home this year.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year, which should boost plays for the Indiana Pacers.. Obi Toppin has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 22.8% higher than he's converted in all games this season.

Myles Turner has tallied 5.4 defensive rebounds per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- among the league's best by this metric.. Out of all players in the league, Myles Turner places in the 81st percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 30.2 minutes per game this year.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league this year, which should boost plays for the Indiana Pacers.. Myles Turner will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court generally boosts stat production in all stat categories.

Luguentz Dort has been on the court for 29.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 78th percentile.. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 9th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 5th-best in in the league as the away team with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Chet Holmgren has played 28.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 76th percentile.. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Thunder will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the 9th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Indiana Pacers).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 5th-best in in the league as the away team with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.