New York @ Indiana picks

After Game 1’s dramatic finish and Game 2’s clutch showing down the stretch, Game 3 screams Pacers, right? Not necessarily. Indiana has been red hot, but this New York team is too good to get beaten three times in a row.  The Pacers lost Game 3 of their first-round series with Milwaukee by 16, and they lost Game 3 against Cleveland by 22 after going up 2-0. This is a let-down spot for Indiana and a must-win for New York. Playing with a renewed level of desperation, I’m picking the Knicks to win this one on the road and avoid a 3-0 deficit. Expect the road team to come out hot and keep its playoff hopes alive with a victory. I’ll take the underdogs on the ML for plus-money odds.

Josh Hart has scored 17.6 points per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 3.5 more than he's scored overall this season on the road.. Josh Hart has converted 51.9% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 16.1% more than he's made from downtown overall this season when playing on the road.. Josh Hart has averaged 37.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 100th percentile.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 25 games on their home court, which should lead to increased plays for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Knicks rank 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Aaron Nesmith has made 3.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season.. Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 31.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.6 more than he's been on the court for overall this season.. In terms of shooting, the Indiana Pacers's remarkable 119.8 points per game comes in as the strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The matchup against New York is a favorable one for threes; when the Knicks are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have put up the highest three rate in the NBA this year (48.0%).. The 7th-speediest tempo home team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Pacers.

Jalen Brunson has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's tallied over the course of the season.. As it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the league this year has been the Knicks.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 4.6 3-point attempts per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Pacers, designating this as a challenging matchup.. The Knicks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league on the road this year.. Jalen Brunson ought to suffer a drop-off in performance across the board in light of being on the road in this contest.

Obi Toppin has sunk 52.4% of his shot attempts from the field while on his home court this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among all players in the NBA.. Obi Toppin has successfully made 55.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 19.4% higher than he's made from 3-point range in all games this season while playing at home.. In terms of shooting, the Indiana Pacers's remarkable 119.8 points per game comes in as the strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The 7th-speediest tempo home team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Pacers.. Obi Toppin will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player performance for all stats.

The Knicks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league on the road this year.. Mitchell Robinson will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally decreases stat production across the board.

Karl-Anthony Towns has totaled 2.8 assists per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 75th percentile.. Among all players in the league, Karl-Anthony Towns lands in the 95th percentile for playing time, totaling a massive 35.0 minutes per game this year.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 25 games on their home court, which should lead to increased plays for the Knicks.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Knicks rank 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.