Philadelphia @ Miami picks

The Miami Heat have dropped two straight home games by a combined eight points. Miami has already clinched a playoff spot, but they owe their fans a solid home victory, and they should get that against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat will accomplish this from a defense surrendering a seventh-best 110 points per night that's dipped to 105 ppg across their last five. Philly averages 103 ppg in their previous five. Monday's matchup features two of the league's slowest-tempo teams, and I'm looking at the Under in Miami. 

The Sixers will once again be without Andre Drummond and Guerschon Yabusele, and with Joel Embiid out for the season, the team will turn to some combination of Adem Bona, Ricky Council IV, and Marcus Bagley to man the frontcourt. This is a highly exploitable matchup for such a talented and experienced center, and I fully expect Bam Adebayo to make the most of this opportunity, especially as he's scored at least 21 points in four straight, and he’s averaged 40.8 PRA in that span while hitting the Over on this line three times.

Quentin Grimes has logged 17 games since March 1 and averaged 26.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, good for 36.1 PRA across 34.9 minutes. He’s hit the Over on this line 12 times, and he’ll ride a three-game streak into tonight’s tilt with the Heat. As well as he’s played overall, Grimes has been lethal on the road. He’s hit the Over in nine of his last 10 away from Wells Fargo Center while averaging a whopping 38 PRA.