NBA Picks

In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the Pistons's subpar 11.0 made threes per game measures as the 3rd-fewest in the league this year.. The 4th-most sluggish pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Detroit Pistons.

The 4th-most sluggish pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Detroit Pistons.

Paolo Banchero is trading at +126 for the Over 5.5 assists against the Charlotte Hornets, and that’s a number worth attacking given I price it closer to -125. Banchero has taken on a major role as a primary initiator for Orlando, averaging over 12 potential assists across his last five games. There’s no clear reason for that to slow down in this matchup. The Magic are coming off two losses, and with this being a Southeast Division game, Banchero should see heavy minutes and usage. From a matchup standpoint, Moussa Diabate will likely prioritize protecting the rim in drop coverage to prevent Banchero from getting downhill. That forces help from the wings to take away mid-range looks, which naturally opens up passing lanes. If that defensive scheme holds, Banchero should have plenty of opportunities to create off those rotations, generating clean looks for shooters like Desmond Bane and Tristan Da Silva.

Charlotte has won two straight over Orlando, holding them to an average of 101 points

The Clippers have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Clippers have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds save possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the LA Clippers rank 4thworst in in the league with just 9.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

James Harden has cashed the Over in points in two of his last four appearances, and he already scored 24 against the Bulls earlier in the campaign.

Overall, he’s played much better on the road this season, averaging 26 PPG compared to 21.9 at home. 

 

The Bulls have won two straight against Cleveland, both as underdogs. With Cavs starting center Jarrett Allen listed out, back Chicago to keep things close at home.

The First Half Over 116.5 looks like a rock-solid spot in San Antonio, with the Spurs going Over the First Half total in 10 of their last 12 home games. Both teams are starting fast lately, with San Antonio averaging 63.5 first-half points over their last 10 games and Phoenix close behind at 59.1. They rank 2nd and 4th in first-half offensive rating in that span, while the Suns are struggling early on the defensive end. Each being red-hot from three-point land should carry this Over.

Devin Booker and Jalen Green have posted elite scoring numbers over their last seven games, leading to a major improvement in the Phoenix Suns’ offense. The Suns rank 26th in points per game (112.4) and 17th in offensive rating (113.9) on the season, but over the last seven, they’re seventh in points (116) and eighth in offensive rating (120.3).

Not all back-to-backs are created equal, and this one sets up as a tough spot for the Los Angeles Lakers. They’re playing their third game in four days, coming off two hard-fought wins in Houston, and now have to travel to Miami. That workload matters. Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, and LeBron James all logged heavy minutes in those games, while Miami comes in with a clear rest advantage. The Heat had a day off, their starters didn’t play extended minutes in a recent blowout against the Hornets, and they also have another day off after this game. Beyond the scheduling edge, the matchup also leans toward Miami—especially with Bam Adebayo expected to play. Doncic’s offense often revolves around forcing switches onto opposing centers, but Adebayo is one of the few bigs in the league who can comfortably defend on the perimeter, taking that advantage away. I make the Heat closer to 5-point favorites.

The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposition's starting PFs have put up the highest three percentage in the league this year (46.4%).. The Lakers are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the speediest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out due to a knee injury, while Kevin Porter and Myles Turner are also questionable to suit up. For Utah, Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George are sidelined – their two best players.

The Jazz check in as the 10th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Utah Jazz.

This game sets up as a must-win for the Philadelphia 76ers, who are still fighting to stay in the playoff race while they wait for Tyrese Maxey and others to return. Given the current roster, this spot should be all about VJ Edgecombe’s usage. If he’s not taking 20+ shots and pushing toward 35+ minutes, it would be surprising. The opportunity is simply too big in this matchup. Edgecombe’s skill set fits perfectly here. He’s an explosive, downhill slasher, and Sacramento lacks a true point-of-attack defender who can match his athleticism. On top of that, Maxime Raynaud doesn’t provide much resistance at the rim, which should make it easier for Edgecombe to finish once he gets into the paint. The Kings also struggle in transition, and that’s another area where Edgecombe thrives as a one-man fast break. With volume and matchup both working in his favor, I price this prop at -205 for him to clear 21.5 points.

In terms of shooting, the Kings's subpar 110.7 points per game ranks 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.. This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 11.3 points per game (lowest in the league) against the 76ers, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive efficiency.. The matchup vs. the 76ers is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.5 foul shots per game this year (least in the league).