Miami 8th Eastern Conference46-36
Houston 11th Western Conference41-41
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Miami @ Houston props

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Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.3
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.3
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson has attempted 10.1 field goals per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 6.1 mark last year. In comparison to last year's 4.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's shot attempts from downtown have spiked this year to 7.0 per game. Among all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson measures in the 75th percentile for playing time, posting a monstrous 28.4 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.3
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.3

Duncan Robinson has attempted 10.1 field goals per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 6.1 mark last year. In comparison to last year's 4.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's shot attempts from downtown have spiked this year to 7.0 per game. Among all players in the NBA, Duncan Robinson measures in the 75th percentile for playing time, posting a monstrous 28.4 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat.

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Over
+116
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Over
+116
Projection Rating

Compared to last season's 21.7% rate, Nikola Jovic's three-point proficiency has spiked this season to 39.9%. Nikola Jovic has been on the court for 23.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 higher than he's been on the court for overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Nikola Jovic has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 40.6% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year on the road.

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.7
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.7

Compared to last season's 21.7% rate, Nikola Jovic's three-point proficiency has spiked this season to 39.9%. Nikola Jovic has been on the court for 23.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 higher than he's been on the court for overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Nikola Jovic has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 40.6% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year on the road.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.8
Best Odds
Over
+102
Prop
13.5 Points Scored
Projection
14.8
Best Odds
Over
+102
Projection Rating

Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro slots into the 94th percentile for shots from the field while playing away from home, totaling 17.8 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 97th percentile for three-point shots made when playing away from home, posting 2.9 per game this year. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 33.5 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.8
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.8

Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro slots into the 94th percentile for shots from the field while playing away from home, totaling 17.8 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 97th percentile for three-point shots made when playing away from home, posting 2.9 per game this year. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 33.5 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat.

Dillon Brooks Points Scored Props • Houston

D. Brooks
shooting guard SG • Houston
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.8
Best Odds
Over
-105

Out of all players in the NBA, Dillon Brooks registers in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 30.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (43.4%). The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Dillon Brooks has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 14.8% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while on his home court.

Dillon Brooks

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.8
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.8

Out of all players in the NBA, Dillon Brooks registers in the 78th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 30.0 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (43.4%). The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Dillon Brooks has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 14.8% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while on his home court.

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Scored Props • Houston

J. Smith Jr.
power forward PF • Houston
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Under
-120

Among all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. registers in the 84th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game while at home this year. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14

Among all players in the NBA, Jabari Smith Jr. registers in the 84th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game while at home this year. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

Fred VanVleet Points Scored Props • Houston

F. VanVleet
point guard PG • Houston
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.8
Best Odds
Over
+100

Fred VanVleet has played 35.4 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a favorable matchup for offensive productivity. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Fred VanVleet

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.8
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.8

Fred VanVleet has played 35.4 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a favorable matchup for offensive productivity. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.7
Best Odds
Over
-104

Jimmy Butler has sunk 42.3% of his 3-point attempts this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among all players in the NBA. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 33.6 minutes per game on the road this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Jimmy Butler has attempted 7.7 free throws per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.7
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.7

Jimmy Butler has sunk 42.3% of his 3-point attempts this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among all players in the NBA. Jimmy Butler has been on the court for 33.6 minutes per game on the road this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Jimmy Butler has attempted 7.7 free throws per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Amen Thompson Points Scored Props • Houston

A. Thompson
shooting guard SG • Houston
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.9
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.9
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

Amen Thompson has converted 14.2% of his treys this year, placing him in the 8th percentile among all players in the league. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

Amen Thompson

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.9
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.9

Amen Thompson has converted 14.2% of his treys this year, placing him in the 8th percentile among all players in the league. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.0 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

Jalen Green Points Scored Props • Houston

J. Green
shooting guard SG • Houston
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.6
Best Odds
Over
-109

Jalen Green has registered 28.4 points per game over the last 10 games, 8.5 higher than he's registered overall this season. Jalen Green has successfully made 4.2 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 1.8 higher than he's made in all games this year. Jalen Green has averaged 36.6 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.9 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting SGs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games.

Jalen Green

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.6
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.6

Jalen Green has registered 28.4 points per game over the last 10 games, 8.5 higher than he's registered overall this season. Jalen Green has successfully made 4.2 3-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 1.8 higher than he's made in all games this year. Jalen Green has averaged 36.6 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.9 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting SGs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games.

Jeff Green Points Scored Props • Houston

J. Green
power forward PF • Houston
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The number of points registered against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably low (12.4 per game) when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably low this year (2.2 foul shots per game when they are at home: 7th percentile).

Jeff Green

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.4
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.4

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Houston Rockets's subpar 31.8% rate of converted threes measures as the 5th-worst in the league over the last 5 games. The number of points registered against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably low (12.4 per game) when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from sharing the court with the slowest tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Heat). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably low this year (2.2 foul shots per game when they are at home: 7th percentile).

Cam Whitmore Points Scored Props • Houston

C. Whitmore
small forward SF • Houston
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.4
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
13.5 Points Scored
Projection
14.4
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

Cam Whitmore has successfully made 6.4 buckets per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.4 more than he's sunk in all games this year at home. Cam Whitmore has attempted 6.0 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 1.4 more than he's attempted in all games this season at home. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Cam Whitmore will likely see a rise in efficiency in all stat categories on account of possessing the home court advantage in this game.

Cam Whitmore

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.4
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.4

Cam Whitmore has successfully made 6.4 buckets per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.4 more than he's sunk in all games this year at home. Cam Whitmore has attempted 6.0 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 1.4 more than he's attempted in all games this season at home. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games. The Houston Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists). Cam Whitmore will likely see a rise in efficiency in all stat categories on account of possessing the home court advantage in this game.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.2
Best Odds
Over
-110

Terry Rozier has successfully made 5.2 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.7 more than he's made in all games this season. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier comes in at the 91st percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 33.8 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 10.9% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.2
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.2

Terry Rozier has successfully made 5.2 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.7 more than he's made in all games this season. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier comes in at the 91st percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 33.8 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The Houston Rockets have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Heat. Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 10.9% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.3
Best Odds
Over
-122

Bam Adebayo has sunk 62.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 9.4% higher than he's put through the net overall this season. Bam Adebayo has sunk 59.1% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games, 25.0% higher than he's converted over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 34.2 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The rate of shots from downtown hit against Jabari Smith Jr. has been very high (39.9%) when he is at home and facing opposing starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.3
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.3

Bam Adebayo has sunk 62.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games, 9.4% higher than he's put through the net overall this season. Bam Adebayo has sunk 59.1% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games, 25.0% higher than he's converted over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 34.2 minutes per game this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to 3-point attempts. The rate of shots from downtown hit against Jabari Smith Jr. has been very high (39.9%) when he is at home and facing opposing starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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