Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 14, 2026
DET
@
CLE
Fri, May 15 • 7:00 PM ET
CLE -3.5 (-120)
Detroit has got to be demoralized after blowing a nine-point lead late in Game 5 and ultimately losing at home in overtime.
The Cavs were the first team to win on the road in this series, and they’ll get an advantageous home court in Game 6.
The Cavaliers rank in the top-3 in points, three-pointers, efficiency, offensive rating and fewest turnovers in Cleveland, and they’re 5-1 ATS there this postseason.
The emergence of Evan Mobley as a facilitator and his work in containing Jalen Duren has been instrumental in Cleveland’s success, and Donovan Mitchell - who has been much better offensively at home - should bounce back after a relatively quiet Game 5.
Cleveland’s 120.4 offensive rating at home is third-best in the playoffs, and its 118 points per game at Rocket Arena ranks second. Cleveland has scored 107 points or more in all six of its home playoff games, and I expect that trend to continue in Game 6.
Donovan Mitchell has averaged 30.2 points on 50.8% shooting at home compared to just 22.3 points on 40.2% shooting on the road this postseason. He’s scored 27+ in four of six home games, and he’s reached that mark in three of five games in the Eastern Conference semis.
SA
@
MIN
Fri, May 15 • 9:30 PM ET
De'Aaron Fox o16.5 Points Scored (-115)
Despite playing with sore ankles in Game 5, De’Aaron Fox topped his points prop for the third straight outing. So far in the postseason, Fox is second on the team in PITP (9.0) and sees a clearer path to the rim if the Minnesota Timberwolves continue to tinker with their rotation. Minnesota played rim protector Rudy Gobert a playoff-low 23 minutes in Game 5, opting to go small. With Wembanyama in high screen action, Fox finds easier looks inside with Gobert gone Friday. Projections sit at 17+ with a ceiling of 20 points.
The T-Wolves are suffering from bad starts versus the Spurs and head coach Chris Finch told reporters they need to do a better job being patient and create better shots. That could slow things down in Game 6. On top of Fox getting to the paint against a smaller Minnesota rotation, he should also find opportunities to find teammates on drive-and-kick and screen-and-roll options with Wemby.
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