Miami @ Phoenix Picks & Props

Chimezie Metu has made 59.3% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games, 8.7% more than he's converted in all games this year. Chimezie Metu has tallied 1.0 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 20th percentile -- among the NBA's least foul-prone. The Phoenix Suns have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home. This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on threes (29th-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, identifying this as a favorable matchup. The fastest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Phoenix Suns.

Kyle Lowry has made 53.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games, 11.6% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year. As it relates to threes, the Heat's excellent 13.1 successful threes per game when playing on the road comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games. The matchup against the Phoenix Suns is a good one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 5 games (29.2). The Phoenix Suns have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. The Phoenix Suns have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson has attempted 7.1 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among all players in the league. As it relates to threes, the Heat's excellent 13.1 successful threes per game when playing on the road comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Phoenix Suns have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. The Phoenix Suns have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 19.1% higher than he's made overall this season.

Out of all players in the league, Jusuf Nurkic registers in the 99th percentile for personal fouls, posting an enormous 3.4 fouls per game this year. This matchup is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team has totaled the 8th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA over the last 25 games (36.7). The Suns are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 2nd-most lethargic tempo visiting offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat). The Suns have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs vs. Bam Adebayo has been quite low this year (2.6 free throw attempts per game: 10th percentile).

The Phoenix Suns have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home. This year, opposing starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, designating this as a good matchup. The fastest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Phoenix Suns. This year, opposing squads have snagged 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat (shortening possessions that could otherwise bring about further chances for offense). Bradley Beal has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 14.0% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted and missed 3.4 attempts from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's missed from downtown in all games this season while playing away from home. The 2nd-most lethargic tempo away offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat. The Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 free throws per game (12th-fewest in the league) against the Suns, struggling to get to the foul line. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces player production across the board.

Devin Booker has made 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's converted over the course of the year. Out of all players in the NBA, Devin Booker measures in the 96th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 35.7 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. The Phoenix Suns have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home. Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have tallied 23.1 points per game (27th-most in the NBA) vs. the Heat, branding this as a favorable matchup for offensive effectiveness. The fastest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Phoenix Suns.

Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 9th percentile for 3-point proficiency with a a lackluster 16.7% rate this year. The 2nd-most lethargic tempo away offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat. The Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). The showdown with Jusuf Nurkic in regard to getting to the foul line registers in the 17th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.2 foul shots per game this year when they are on the road. Bam Adebayo will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city tends to worsen stat production in all facets of the game.

Kevin Love has converted 51.8% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 6.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. Out of all players in the league, Kevin Love lands in the 75th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc while playing on the road, registering 4.7 per game this year. As it relates to threes, the Heat's excellent 13.1 successful threes per game when playing on the road comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Phoenix Suns have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat. The Phoenix Suns have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Tyler Herro has attempted 19.1 shots per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 16.5 mark last year. Tyler Herro has successfully made 3.1 three-pointers per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among all players in the league. Tyler Herro has played 33.2 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 88th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league. As it relates to threes, the Heat's excellent 13.1 successful threes per game when playing on the road comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Phoenix Suns have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Miami Heat.

Grayson Allen has successfully made 6.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.5 more than he's made over the course of the season at home. Grayson Allen has sunk 3.2 threes per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.9 more than he's made from three over the course of the season at home. Grayson Allen has played 33.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 86th percentile. The Phoenix Suns have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while at home. This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 three attempts per game (28th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, marking this as a strong matchup.

Josh Richardson has gone over 8.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Josh Okogie has gone over 5.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.