Denver @ Miami Picks & Props

The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup against the Nuggets is a tough one for threes; opposing squads have compiled the lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (34.4%). The matchup against the Nuggets may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted just 21.1 free throws per game over the last 20 games when the Nuggets are the visiting squad (least in the league).

Aaron Gordon has converted 56.1% of his shot attempts from the field this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the league. Aaron Gordon has tallied 36.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.5 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road. The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists). Aaron Gordon has attempted 4.4 free throws per game this season, a big improvement over his 3.2 rate last season.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one; they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (12.1). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage. The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should decrease plays for the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a measly 2.5 foul shots per game this year (12th-least in the league).

Gabe Vincent has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.3 more than he's tallied overall this season at home. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a hard one; they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 20 games (14.3). The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least shots made from the field per game in the NBA this year (5.8). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage. The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should decrease plays for the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. the Heat may be a hard one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 1.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (12th-least in the league).

The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a strong one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting PFs over the last 20 games (21.2). Kevin Love has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 12.0% more than he's converted in all games this season. The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a massive 5.8 free throws per game over the last 20 games (30th-most in the NBA). Kevin Love will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court usually increases player production in all stat categories.

Jimmy Butler has attempted 20.5 field goals per game over the last 10 games while on his home court, 4.8 higher than he's attempted in all games this year at home. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 1.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season. Jimmy Butler has tallied 40.0 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.6 higher than he's tallied overall this season. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown. Jimmy Butler has attempted 8.7 foul shots per game this year, putting him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Max Strus has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 0.2 higher than he's committed in all games this year at home. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a tough one for 3-pointers; the other team's starting SGs have totaled the 7th-least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the league this year (1.8). The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a tough one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (13.4). The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Without the home court advantage, the Nuggets have allowed the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo has played 34.2 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown. The matchup vs. Denver is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Nuggets are on the road, opposing starting Cs have shot for the 26th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (38.6%). Bam Adebayo has converted 91.7% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.8% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year. The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting Cs have attempted an enormous 4.3 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (26th-most in the NBA).

The matchup against the Heat is a tough one for threes; the opposition's starting PFs have posted the 11th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (28.1%). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage. The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should decrease plays for the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). Jeff Green will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens stat production for all stats.

Kyle Lowry has made 50.4% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games at home, 7.9% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year with the home court advantage. Kyle Lowry has been on the court for 29.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 76th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown. Kyle Lowry has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 11.5% higher than he's converted overall this season. Kyle Lowry will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court usually raises player production in all stat categories.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has gone over 9.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Duncan Robinson has gone over 7.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Michael Porter Jr. has gone over 14.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.