NBA Picks

Atlanta has won eight in a row, while Milwaukee has dropped seven of its last eight games. These streaks include a 131-113 win for the Hawks in Milwaukee last week. I'm expecting more of the same tonight and taking the Hawks to cover at home.

In terms of three-point shots, the Milwaukee Bucks's terrific 38.7% rate of made threes ranks 2nd-highest in the NBA this year.. The matchup against Atlanta is a strong one for threes; when the Atlanta Hawks are on their home court, the opposition's starting SFs have shot for the highest three rate in the NBA this year (60.1%).. The Hawks have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the league this year, which should boost opportunities for the Bucks.

Stephon Castle notched his third career triple-double in Thursday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets, and he’s a prime candidate for another do-it-all effort today against the Hornets. He’s gone past this combo prop number in three straight outings, and he’s shooting 43% from downtown this month.

With the Spurs still chasing the No.1 seed in the West, there’s no margin for error, and Castle could see even more touches this afternoon if Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper – both questionable – sit out.

Plus, Castle had 16 points and nine dimes in Charlotte in late January, and he’s up to 7.0 APG this year, which quietly puts him 10th in the NBA in that category.

In terms of offense, the Spurs's exceptional 122.4 points per game places most in the league over the last 20 games.. Over the last 5 games when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have totaled 22.3 points per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Hornets, labeling this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.. The 9th-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Spurs.. The matchup vs. the Hornets is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.5 foul shots per game this year (most in the league).

This year, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 3.0 threes per game (most in the NBA) against the Celtics, branding this as a favorable matchup.. The most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Washington Wizards.. The Wizards check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Will Riley has registered 15.8 points per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 7.2 higher than he's registered in all games this year on the road.. The most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Washington Wizards.. The Wizards check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. The matchup vs. Boston is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 3.9 foul shots per game this year when the Celtics have the home court advantage (8th-most in the NBA).

Give the Orlando Magic credit. Despite a bumpy year, they’re up to fifth in the Eastern Conference after six straight victories – and I’m jumping on this Over for Desmond Bane, who’s racked up 21 assists across his past three games.

Bane’s strong play is a big reason for Orlando’s rise, and he’ll be a key figure tonight against a  Miami Heat team that’s matching the Magic’s scorching form. He’s averaging 5.6 APG so far in March, and he’s had five dimes in his last two outings against the Heat. 

There’s a clear path to a big playmaking impact here for Bane, with Franz Wagner still out and Anthony Black joining him on the sidelines, and Orlando has won all four meetings with its Florida rivals this year.

Both teams enter on win streaks, but the schedules tell a different story. Orlando’s run came mostly against struggling teams, including three games vs. Washington, two each vs. Brooklyn and Milwaukee, and one vs. Dallas.

Miami is 8-2-0 ATS in their last 10, and I like them to cover tonight. 

We’ve been treated to some great Lakers-Nuggets matchups in recent years, and Nikola Jokic should have his fingerprints all over tonight’s latest clash.

Denver is still searching for its best form in the lead-up to the playoffs, but Jokic has dished 12+ dimes in four of his past five outings, including a win over L.A. earlier this month.

The Nuggets lead the NBA with 120.6 PPG, and Joker’s passing is also the spark for their league-best 39% mark from beyond the arc. While the Lakers are on a four-game win streak, they just don’t have the frontcourt options to contain Jokic here. If JJ Redick’s men lean on double teams, the three-time MVP can be surgical in making the right reads.

The Lakers’ team defensive rating (115.9) is 20th in the Association, and L.A. doesn’t have enough quality defenders to throw at Joker, Jamal Murray and a cast of capable three-point shooters. Expect plenty of drive-and-kick opportunities for Murray to feed teammates and some quality looks in the lane as Gordon and Jokic pull interior defenders out to the perimeter.

Defense has taken a backseat to offense over the Los Angeles Clippers’ four-game win streak. In that span, LA’s defensive rating has fallen from 115.3 to 117.6, but its offensive rating has surged to an NBA-best 129.6. In that span, the Clippers have averaged a whopping 130.3 points.

The Sacramento Kings’ offense has improved over the last four games too, posting a 115.1 offensive rating while scoring 118 points per game. The Kings have hit the Over in six of their last 10, and the Clippers have done so in seven of 10. 

Precious Achiuwa has tallied 15.9 points per game over the last 10 games, 7.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The Kings have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Clippers have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more plays for the Sacramento Kings.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings rank 2nd-best in in the NBA while playing on the road with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.. This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.1 free throws per game (9th-most in the NBA) against the Clippers, easily managing to draw fouls.