NBA Picks

Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.5 assists per game along with 17.7 potential assists, which shows how often he is creating scoring chances for teammates. Jokic has recorded at least 11 assists in seven of his last nine games. Against a Dallas defense that leaks like a sieve, his assist total should soar. 

The Nuggets have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Portland has been the NBA’s best first half team lately, ranking first in both net rating and point differential over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are spiraling, sitting near the bottom in those same categories and 29th in offensive rating. With Portland’s elite defense and recent dominant halftime leads, this is a great spot to back the Blazers.
 
 
 

The Milwaukee Bucks rank 29th in scoring at a paltry 107.2 points per game. They scored 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10, and they were held under 100 points in two of their last three. On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers have allowed the fifth-fewest points to opponents across their last 10 games (108.8) and sport the second-best defensive rating at 106.9. The Blazers have held opponents to 106 points or fewer in five of their last 10 outings, including two of their last three overall and two of their last three at home.

Golden State has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 home games. 

The 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Nets.. Offensive rebounds save possession and spark extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the NBA without the home court advantage with a mere 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup vs. Golden State is a tough one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Golden State Warriors are at home (9th-least in the NBA).

All-Star break and fourth over this six-game stretch, where they are 5-1 ATS. The Clippers rank just 19th in defensive rating over that same stretch and are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.

You can play the over 6.5 assists at -140 for Darius Garland, but I much prefer attacking the alternate line of 8+ assists at +130. I price 8+ closer to -145, so there’s a clear edge on the alternate number. This matchup sets up well for Garland’s playmaking. The Raptors run a heavy switching scheme, which should allow him to hunt mismatches and dictate the offense as the primary ball handler. If he can force smaller defenders onto bigs like Brook Lopez and John Collins, it creates easy scoring opportunities around the rim—and high-value assist chances. Toronto’s aggressive approach on the offensive glass is another factor. It often leads to transition opportunities going the other way, where Garland can push the pace and generate easy assists with hit-ahead passes. When you combine the matchup dynamics with his role, this profiles as a strong spot for Garland to clear his higher assist ceiling.

New Orleans may be paltry, but the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS over their last 10, and the Pistons team will once again be without superstar point guard Cade Cunningham. Take NOLA to make it a game in the Motor City.