Arizona @ San Diego Picks & Props

Tim Tawa is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Tim Tawa will not have the upper hand in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Tim Tawa has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Lawlar in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jordan Lawlar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Nick Pivetta will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Lawlar in today's game. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.

In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Extreme flyball batters like Alek Thomas are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like JP Sears. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Extreme groundball bats like Jake McCarthy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like JP Sears. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. This season, Jake McCarthy has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.9 mph compared to last year's 87.1 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Gabriel Moreno will be at a disadvantage today. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Gabriel Moreno has notched a .341 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 78th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's game. Jake Cronenworth will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jake Cronenworth has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.3% seasonal rate to 13.6% in the last two weeks.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 40%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 92.3-mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corbin Carroll ranks as the 19th-best batter in the game. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Corbin Carroll has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.3% rate last year to 14.5% this year. Corbin Carroll's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 34.3% to 39.9%.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage in today's game. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Posting a .339 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Gavin Sheets grades out in the 75th percentile for offensive ability.

James McCann is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against James McCann in today's game. James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. James McCann has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph mark.

When estimating his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 4th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Arraez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Luis Arraez will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Compared to his seasonal figure of 15.6°, Geraldo Perdomo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (12.6°) over the past two weeks. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 13% to 20.2%.

In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Jorge Barrosa has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 86.9-mph average. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Barrosa has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .160 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .192.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game. Manny Machado has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.7% seasonal rate to 19.2% in the past 14 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 13th-best hitter in baseball. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Nick Pivetta in this game. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Iglesias has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 102.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 83.5-mph figure. Jose Iglesias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 9.5% on the season to 50% in the past week's worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) may lead us to conclude that Jose Iglesias has had some very poor luck this year with his .228 actual batting average.

Jackson Merrill's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

In MLB, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Extreme groundball batters like Ildemaro Vargas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like JP Sears. The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the worst among every team playing today. Ildemaro Vargas has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last season's 86.7-mph mark. Ildemaro Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 11.2% to 15.1%.

Freddy Fermin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Freddy Fermin will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Last year, Freddy Fermin had an average launch angle of 4.9° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 8.1°.

Bryce Johnson has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Blaze Alexander has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.