San Diego @ Chicago Picks & Props

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Elias Diaz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph average. There has been a significant improvement in Elias Diaz's launch angle from last year's 7.3° to 18.2° this year. Elias Diaz's quickness has increased this year. His 24.41 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Burke in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jake Cronenworth's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.2% up to 16.7%. Jake Cronenworth has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 90.3-mph.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Sean Burke throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Ryan O'Hearn has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph figure. Ryan O'Hearn's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 40.8% to 46.3%.

Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Sean Burke in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph EV. By putting up a .340 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Gavin Sheets is ranked in the 77th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Kyle Teel is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Kyle Teel will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Kyle Teel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Lenyn Sosa has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Lenyn Sosa will hold that advantage today. Lenyn Sosa's launch angle this season (18.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 12.4° figure last year.

Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Dominic Fletcher will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dominic Fletcher has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Fletcher will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.231) provides evidence that Dominic Fletcher has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .205 actual batting average. Dominic Fletcher grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (48.6% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Manny Machado has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year's 93.4-mph mark. In the past 7 days, Manny Machado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 5th-best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average talent. Luis Arraez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Burke throws from, Luis Arraez will have an advantage today. Luis Arraez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the last 7 days, Luis Arraez's 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Ramon Laureano pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Ramon Laureano has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games. Ramon Laureano has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 94.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best hitter in MLB. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been unlucky this year, compiling a .348 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .377 — a .029 disparity. Fernando Tatis Jr. has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 89th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Mike Tauchman is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Mike Tauchman will have the handedness advantage over Michael King today. Mike Tauchman has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Mike Tauchman will hold that advantage in today's game. Mike Tauchman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 16.3% on the season to 30% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Burke today. Jackson Merrill has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Jackson Merrill has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 31.3% over the past 14 days.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Freddy Fermin has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 89.3-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.2°, Freddy Fermin has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23° figure in the last 14 days.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Will Robertson will have the handedness advantage against Michael King in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Will Robertson will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Will Robertson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.1% up to 16.7%. Will Robertson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph to 91.6-mph over the past week.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Miguel Vargas pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage in today's game. Miguel Vargas has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edgar Quero in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Edgar Quero is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Edgar Quero has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Edgar Quero will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.6°, Edgar Quero has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 17.3° angle over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Meidroth in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Chase Meidroth is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Chase Meidroth has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Chase Meidroth will hold that advantage today. Chase Meidroth has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 1.7% seasonal rate to 6.7% over the past 7 days.

Colson Montgomery is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Colson Montgomery will hold the platoon advantage over Michael King in today's matchup. Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Colson Montgomery will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Colson Montgomery and his 22.7% rank in the 94th percentile this year.

Jose Iglesias has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Andrew Benintendi has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.