Cleveland @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Nolan Jones's BABIP talent is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nolan Jones is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Nolan Jones has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Over the last two weeks, Nolan Jones's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.3-mph lately.

David Fry is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. David Fry will hold the platoon advantage against Griffin Jax today. David Fry has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 90.6-mph average. There has been a significant improvement in David Fry's launch angle from last season's 19.4° to 23.8° this season.

Angel Martinez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. The switch-hitting Angel Martinez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Griffin Jax. There has been a significant improvement in Angel Martinez's launch angle from last year's 14.8° to 18.4° this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Angel Martinez's true offensive ability to be a .291, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .020 difference between that mark and his actual .271 wOBA.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Griffin Jax throws from, Austin Hedges will have an edge in today's matchup. Austin Hedges has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph mark. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Austin Hedges ranks in the 97th percentile with a 24° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in Major League Baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Griffin Jax throws from, Gabriel Arias will have an advantage in today's game. Gabriel Arias has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.8% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 14 days. In the past 14 days, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.7-mph over the course of the season to 101.7-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Jose Ramirez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Griffin Jax in today's matchup. Jose Ramirez has posted a .357 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Kwan in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Steven Kwan is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 48.4% on the season to 64% over the past week. In terms of his batting average, Steven Kwan has suffered from bad luck this year. His .272 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .294.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Brayan Rocchio has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.1-mph average to last season's 84.5-mph EV. Brayan Rocchio's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 37.7% to 47.5%. Brayan Rocchio has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .233 mark is deflated compared to his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Yandy Diaz will hold that advantage today.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. In the past week, Kyle Manzardo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12% up to 20%. Kyle Manzardo has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV. Kyle Manzardo's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (27.9° in the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 22.9° seasonal mark.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage today. Junior Caminero has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 13.3% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the past two weeks.

Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Richie Palacios will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams today. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 15th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his batting average talent. Chandler Simpson is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Chandler Simpson will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Robert Seymour will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Williams today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Robert Seymour will hold that advantage in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Jhonkensy Noel will hold the platoon advantage over Griffin Jax in today's game. In the past 7 days, Jhonkensy Noel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.5-mph in recent games. Jhonkensy Noel's launch angle of late (28° over the last week) is considerably higher than his 12.6° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .180 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jhonkensy Noel has experienced some negative variance given the .109 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .289.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage today. Sporting a .292 batting average this year, Jake Mangum grades out in the 93rd percentile.

Carson Williams's BABIP talent is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Carson Williams will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams today. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Hunter Feduccia will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Hunter Feduccia will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past two weeks, Hunter Feduccia has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 32° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.5°. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Hunter Feduccia has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .236 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.