Cleveland @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Gabriel Arias has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 93.3-mph over the past two weeks. Gabriel Arias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 11.9% to 15.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 15th-best batter in the majors when assessing his batting average skill. Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Chandler Simpson has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .289 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .310 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Daniel Schneemann is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Daniel Schneemann will have the upper hand today. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Daniel Schneemann has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last two weeks.

Carson Williams's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Carson Williams will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Carson Williams will hold that advantage in today's game. Carson Williams's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (20° over the last week) is quite a bit better than his 12.2° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Collin Kayfus in the 86th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Collin Kayfus will have an advantage in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Collin Kayfus has experienced some negative variance this year. His .262 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .320.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Everson Pereira will have the handedness advantage against Logan Allen in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Everson Pereira will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past week, Everson Pereira's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.7-mph over the course of the season to 108.9-mph recently.

Jose Ramirez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Kwan in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Steven Kwan is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Steven Kwan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Jake Mangum has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In notching a .288 batting average this year, Jake Mangum has performed in the 92nd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand today. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Yandy Diaz will have an edge today. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Brayan Rocchio has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last year's 84.5-mph figure. Brayan Rocchio has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .235 BA is a fair amount lower than his .258 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Nolan Jones will have an edge in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Nolan Jones has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.8% seasonal rate to 25% in the last two weeks.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Kyle Manzardo will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot today. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the last week, Kyle Manzardo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.3% up to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Christopher Morel will have the handedness advantage over Logan Allen in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Bo Naylor has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage today. Bo Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest temperature on the slate at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Nick Fortes will have an edge in today's matchup. Nick Fortes will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Nick Fortes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.6-mph average to last year's 84.1-mph mark. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 11.6% to 16.2%.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.