New York @ Houston Picks & Props

Austin Wells has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Austin Wells has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days. Austin Wells has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal figure of 93.6-mph. Austin Wells's launch angle this season (20.8°) is significantly better than his 16.9° mark last season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 3rd-best batter in baseball. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Extreme flyball hitters like Yordan Alvarez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate today).

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trent Grisham is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Trent Grisham has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 14.6% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 7 days. Trent Grisham has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 95.7-mph. Trent Grisham has notched a .361 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Caballero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.2-mph average to last year's 83.5-mph figure. Jose Caballero's launch angle in recent games (26.3° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 18.8° seasonal figure. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 50.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 10% rate last year to 17.8% this year. Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (22.2°) is significantly higher than his 13.2° angle last year. Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (25.4° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 22.2° seasonal figure. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has compiled a .354 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 87th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Cody Bellinger tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Over the past week, Cody Bellinger's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 21.1%. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.5°, Cody Bellinger has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.3° figure in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Jose Altuve will have an edge today. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

Carlos Correa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Carlos Correa is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park. Carlos Correa will have the handedness advantage over Max Fried in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Aaron Judge will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.8°, Aaron Judge has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 29.8° angle over the past 7 days.

When estimating his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park. Jeremy Pena will have the handedness advantage over Max Fried in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park. Ramon Urias will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ramon Urias has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Yainer Diaz will have an edge in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Giancarlo Stanton will have an advantage today. Giancarlo Stanton pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Giancarlo Stanton has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 21% seasonal rate to 40% in the last two weeks.

Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an edge today. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (28.4° in the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 7.2° seasonal figure. Compared to last season, Mauricio Dubon has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.1% to 19.7% this season.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Anthony Volpe will have an advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Anthony Volpe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.2% up to 17.6%. In the past 7 days, Anthony Volpe's 35.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.2%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.228) provides evidence that Anthony Volpe has had some very poor luck this year with his .210 actual batting average.

Amed Rosario's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Amed Rosario will have an advantage in today's matchup. Amed Rosario has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph average. Amed Rosario has put up a .283 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Amed Rosario has posted a .327 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

Paul Goldschmidt's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Paul Goldschmidt's launch angle from last season's 12.8° to 16.6° this season. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 45.1% on the season to 57.1% in the past two weeks.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Christian Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried in today's matchup. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Christian Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Cesar Salazar will hold that advantage today.