Pittsburgh @ St. Louis picks
Busch Stadium
PIT vs STL Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Neither Carmen Mlodzinski nor Sonny Gray have pitched very well this season, and both have struggled to get through the order a second time without serious damage. The price of +100 provides us a strong edge given how much offense we've already seen in the series.
Total RBIs

Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 6th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Total RBIs

Tommy Pham o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Tommy Pham's batting average talent is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tommy Pham is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Sonny Gray in this game.
Total RBIs

Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski today.. Alec Burleson is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game since none of the available options for the Pittsburgh Pirates share his handedness.
Total RBIs

Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Ivan Herrera will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Hitting from the opposite that Carmen Mlodzinski throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total RBIs

Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Oneil Cruz o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 6th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Outs Recorded

Sonny Gray u17.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
Projection 16.3 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.. Sonny Gray's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (91.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.3 mph).