Chicago @ San Francisco picks

I’m expecting a solid showing from Chicago lefty Matthew Boyd tonight. San Francisco has the lowest wOBA in the majors and the fourth-highest strikeout percentage against southpaws, and Boyd’s impressed all season with a 2.61 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Chicago lineup should also have success against San Fran veteran Justin Verlander. He was teed up for seven runs across just 4 1/3 innings during his last start and is up to a 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP for the campaign.

Boyd has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs, but there’s regression coming. His BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB rate are all running well below his career norms. Simply put, he’s been lucky. From 2020–2024, he’s issued 91 walks in 263 innings — and his recent walk rate is trending upward. After hitting the Under on this prop in 8 of his last 10, we’re getting value at +110 on the Over or better. He faces a disciplined Giants lineup on the road, and his splits support the play: 2.6 BB/9 on the road vs. 1.4 at Wrigley. He just walked three vs. Milwaukee and is projected for 1.52 BBs on just 86 pitches by THE BAT — that projection feels like the floor. Buy the dip — this number is mispriced.

As it relates to his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Willy Adames will have an advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Oracle Park's RF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 10th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Heliot Ramos will have an edge in today's matchup.

Matt Chapman projects as the 17th-best home run hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Matt Chapman will have an edge today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 15th-best batter in the league.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 11.5% rate last year to 18.6% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. The #3 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Oracle Park's RF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will get to bat from his better side against Justin Verlander in today's game.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Carson Kelly's launch angle recently (33.4° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 15.8° seasonal angle.. Posting a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly has performed in the 89th percentile for offensive ability.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Michael Busch is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The #3 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander today.

Casey Schmitt is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #3 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Casey Schmitt will have an advantage today.. Casey Schmitt will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.