Boston @ New York picks

The Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill, and while he’s having a respectable campaign, the right-hander has allowed 15 home runs in 19 starts. Judge is 0-for-4 lifetime against him, but the slugger has cracked 29 round-trippers off righties. This is a fierce rivalry, and the Bronx Bombers need their superstar to perform. I’ll take him to do just that in the series opener.

I’m going to head to the prop market and take Aaron Judge Over 1.5 bases for tonight's best bet. Judge fits here in every way except head-to-head history against Lucas Giolito, where he has been 0-4 in his career. Important context is needed though. Much of those meetings came at the prime of Giolito’s career and not who he is now. What he is now is a pitcher with a barrel rate and hard-hit rate that are anemic, and a guy who loves to throw high-velocity stuff. You simply can’t ask for a better matchup—granted he gets some competitive pitches.

Jarren Duran's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Paul Goldschmidt has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game.. Paul Goldschmidt has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Trent Grisham will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in baseball.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Aaron Judge will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.5°, Aaron Judge has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.2° figure in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Among every team in action today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. Checking in at the 89th percentile, Trevor Story sports a .334 BABIP this year.

Cody Bellinger's batting average talent is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Cody Bellinger will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito today.. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as the league's 4th-best home run hitter.. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Giancarlo Stanton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Giancarlo Stanton has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 41.7% over the past two weeks.

When assessing his home run ability, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Ryan McMahon will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ryan McMahon will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Ryan McMahon has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.

Jarren Duran's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Among every team in action today, the 13th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. Carlos Narvaez's 91.4-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in Major League Baseball this year: 82nd percentile.