Cleveland @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
CLE vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Outs Recorded


Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Pfaadt just threw 100 pitches in Coors and last hit triple digits 18 starts ago. He is a pitcher who throws around 90 pitches per start, and the extra workload could hurt the quality/quantity today vs. the Guardians, who see a lot of pitches. He has allowed 35 hits over his last 21.1 IP, which includes two of four starts vs. the light-hitting Rockies. He is 11-4 to the Under on this total across his last 15 starts.
Total RBIs

Gabriel Arias o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Gabriel Arias has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.7% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.. Over the last 14 days, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.5-mph over the course of the season to 103.9-mph of late.
Total RBIs

Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Parker Messick in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Tyler Locklear o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Locklear in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Tyler Locklear will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Tyler Locklear will hold that advantage today.. In the last week, Tyler Locklear's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91-mph over the course of the season to 93.1-mph of late.
Total RBIs

Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Kyle Manzardo has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 92-mph average.
Total RBIs

Daniel Schneemann o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Daniel Schneemann will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.. Daniel Schneemann's launch angle lately (28.6° over the past week) is a significant increase over his 9.4° seasonal angle.
Total RBIs

Bo Naylor o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bo Naylor is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage in today's game.. There has been a significant improvement in Bo Naylor's launch angle from last season's 19.5° to 22.8° this year.
Total Bases

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Kyle Manzardo has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year's 92-mph average.
Total Bases

Ketel Marte o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Parker Messick in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ketel Marte o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 2.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Parker Messick in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage today.