Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (5.2°) is significantly worse than his 8.4° figure last year. In the last 14 days, Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-2.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.2°.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela faces a tough challenge in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

14% of the time that Masataka Yoshida has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (4.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.5° mark last season. In the last 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's 30% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 42%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Tomoyuki Sugano will hold the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 2.9% over the last two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Alex Bregman has been very fortunate this year. His .302 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Over the past week, Roman Anthony's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.7%. Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Roman Anthony has been very fortunate given the .036 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Dylan Carlson's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.5° angle last season. In the past two weeks, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 34.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 22.6°. Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side given the .047 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Adley Rutschman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Romy Gonzalez has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 15.5% this year.

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Coby Mayo's launch angle in recent games (23.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 20.2° seasonal mark. As it relates to his batting average, Coby Mayo has been unlucky this year. His .204 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235. Coby Mayo's 20.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 86th percentile.

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, compiling a .205 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .090 deviation. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Dylan Beavers will have the upper hand today. In the past week, Dylan Beavers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89-mph figure. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

Luis Vazquez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Luis Vazquez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Jackson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Alex Jackson has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year's 93.3 mph mark. Since the start of last season, Alex Jackson's 11.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph in recent games.