Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

BAL vs BOS Picks

MLB Picks
Total Home Runs
Dylan Carlson logo Dylan Carlson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Maybe not the most well-known name for this last pick, but there’s evidence. Dylan Carlson has six home runs on the year, and two of them are in his last three games. The former Cardinal is swinging it very well at the moment, and that's good news for tonight’s clash. 

Strikeouts Thrown
Tomoyuki Sugano logo
Tomoyuki Sugano u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 3.2 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tomoyuki Sugano in the 6th percentile among all starters in the league.. Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tomoyuki Sugano is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-worst field in the league for strikeouts.. Tomoyuki Sugano will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Tomoyuki Sugano struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and notched 1 Ks.
Total RBIs
Colton Cowser logo
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game.. Colton Cowser has a ton of pop (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.
Total RBIs
Jackson Holliday logo
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game.. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Alex Bregman logo
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs
Gunnar Henderson logo
Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand today.. Gunnar Henderson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs
Adley Rutschman logo
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park.. Adley Rutschman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.
Total RBIs
Trevor Story logo
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Trevor Story ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest.. Trevor Story has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano struggles to strike batters out (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Story.
Total RBIs
Romy Gonzalez logo
Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Romy Gonzalez has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 15.5% this year.
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez logo
Carlos Narvaez u1.5 Total Bases (-189)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Carlos Narvaez is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. Among all stadiums, the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) are at Fenway Park.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today.. Tomoyuki Sugano will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez in today's game.. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 12.1% on the season to 9.1% over the past 7 days.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Colton Cowser logo
Colton Cowser o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game.. Colton Cowser has a ton of pop (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.
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BAL vs BOS Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

BAL vs BOS Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ryan Mountcastle Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Ryan Mountcastle
R. Mountcastle
first base 1B • Baltimore
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

Ryan Mountcastle logo

Ryan Mountcastle

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

Jarren Duran Total Hits Props • Boston

Jarren Duran
J. Duran
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (5.2°) is significantly worse than his 8.4° figure last year. In the last 14 days, Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-2.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.2°.

Jarren Duran logo

Jarren Duran

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (5.2°) is significantly worse than his 8.4° figure last year. In the last 14 days, Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-2.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.2°.

Ceddanne Rafaela Total Hits Props • Boston

Ceddanne Rafaela
C. Rafaela
center outfield CF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela faces a tough challenge in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

Ceddanne Rafaela logo

Ceddanne Rafaela

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela faces a tough challenge in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

Masataka Yoshida Total Hits Props • Boston

Masataka Yoshida
M. Yoshida
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

14% of the time that Masataka Yoshida has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (4.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.5° mark last season. In the last 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's 30% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 42%.

Masataka Yoshida logo

Masataka Yoshida

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

14% of the time that Masataka Yoshida has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (4.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.5° mark last season. In the last 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's 30% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 42%.

Alex Bregman Total Hits Props • Boston

Alex Bregman
A. Bregman
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Tomoyuki Sugano will hold the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 2.9% over the last two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Alex Bregman has been very fortunate this year. His .302 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

Alex Bregman logo

Alex Bregman

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Tomoyuki Sugano will hold the platoon advantage against Alex Bregman in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 8.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 2.9% over the last two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Alex Bregman has been very fortunate this year. His .302 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

Gunnar Henderson Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Gunnar Henderson
G. Henderson
shortstop SS • Baltimore
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Gunnar Henderson logo

Gunnar Henderson

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. In the past week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Roman Anthony Total Hits Props • Boston

Roman Anthony
R. Anthony
right outfield RF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Over the past week, Roman Anthony's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.7%. Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Roman Anthony has been very fortunate given the .036 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

Roman Anthony logo

Roman Anthony

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today. Over the past week, Roman Anthony's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.7%. Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Roman Anthony has been very fortunate given the .036 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

Jackson Holliday Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Jackson Holliday
J. Holliday
second base 2B • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds

Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Jackson Holliday logo

Jackson Holliday

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Dylan Carlson Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Dylan Carlson
D. Carlson
left outfield LF • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Dylan Carlson's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.5° angle last season. In the past two weeks, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 34.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 22.6°. Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side given the .047 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

Dylan Carlson logo

Dylan Carlson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Dylan Carlson's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.5° angle last season. In the past two weeks, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 34.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 22.6°. Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side given the .047 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

Adley Rutschman Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Adley Rutschman
A. Rutschman
catcher C • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Adley Rutschman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.

Adley Rutschman logo

Adley Rutschman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Adley Rutschman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.

Colton Cowser Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Colton Cowser
C. Cowser
left outfield LF • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Colton Cowser logo

Colton Cowser

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game. Colton Cowser has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Romy Gonzalez Total Hits Props • Boston

Romy Gonzalez
R. Gonzalez
first base 1B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Romy Gonzalez has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 15.5% this year.

Romy Gonzalez logo

Romy Gonzalez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Romy Gonzalez has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 15.5% this year.

Coby Mayo Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Coby Mayo
C. Mayo
first base 1B • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Coby Mayo's launch angle in recent games (23.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 20.2° seasonal mark. As it relates to his batting average, Coby Mayo has been unlucky this year. His .204 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235. Coby Mayo's 20.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 86th percentile.

Coby Mayo logo

Coby Mayo

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Coby Mayo's launch angle in recent games (23.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 20.2° seasonal mark. As it relates to his batting average, Coby Mayo has been unlucky this year. His .204 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235. Coby Mayo's 20.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 86th percentile.

Connor Wong Total Hits Props • Boston

Connor Wong
C. Wong
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, compiling a .205 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .090 deviation. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

Connor Wong logo

Connor Wong

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, compiling a .205 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .090 deviation. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

Dylan Beavers Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Dylan Beavers
D. Beavers
right outfield RF • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Dylan Beavers will have the upper hand today. In the past week, Dylan Beavers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Dylan Beavers logo

Dylan Beavers

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Dylan Beavers will have the upper hand today. In the past week, Dylan Beavers's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Abraham Toro Total Hits Props • Boston

Abraham Toro
A. Toro
first base 1B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89-mph figure. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

Abraham Toro logo

Abraham Toro

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89-mph figure. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

Trevor Story Total Hits Props • Boston

Trevor Story
T. Story
shortstop SS • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

Trevor Story logo

Trevor Story

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

Luis Vazquez Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Luis Vazquez
L. Vazquez
shortstop SS • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Luis Vazquez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Luis Vazquez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Luis Vazquez logo

Luis Vazquez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Luis Vazquez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Luis Vazquez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Alex Jackson Total Hits Props • Baltimore

Alex Jackson
A. Jackson
catcher C • Baltimore
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Jackson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Alex Jackson has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year's 93.3 mph mark. Since the start of last season, Alex Jackson's 11.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

Alex Jackson logo

Alex Jackson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Jackson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Alex Jackson has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year's 93.3 mph mark. Since the start of last season, Alex Jackson's 11.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

Carlos Narvaez Total Hits Props • Boston

Carlos Narvaez
C. Narvaez
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph in recent games.

Carlos Narvaez logo

Carlos Narvaez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The #6 venue in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph in recent games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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Baltimore Team Leaders

Rank Leader L10 Units
1 Sandsaver727 5-5-0 +31435
2 stumpmaker 4-5-1 +24450
3 reddog6008 7-2-1 +20117
4 coach_d5 7-3-0 +18885
5 jnc3lb 5-5-0 +16895
6 mccabe40 3-7-0 +16810
7 MLBFan8848 5-5-0 +16285
8 R_MUNDO 4-6-0 +16065
9 Enelra18 4-5-1 +15445
10 Queefs4 5-4-1 +15185
All Orioles Money Leaders

Boston Team Leaders

Rank Leader L10 Units
1 dispnum1 5-5-0 +16630
2 stakay125 7-3-0 +16380
3 Jackson2399 6-4-0 +15369
4 regger22 8-2-0 +14785
5 Andrew333_ 7-3-0 +13995
6 mikeg1827 5-5-0 +13785
7 Shitman 8-2-0 +13440
8 Coakley 7-3-0 +12975
9 Sandsaver727 3-7-0 +12835
10 TheTotalMan 9-1-0 +12815
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