Pittsburgh @ Chicago picks
Wrigley Field
PIT vs CHC Picks
MLB Picks
Total Strikeouts

Pick made: 12 days ago

Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Shota Imanaga has seven Ks against the Cincinnati Reds and another eight versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Sure enough, he’s facing another divisional foe today. Imanaga has 29 Ks in 35 innings in day games this season, and the Pittsburgh Pirates strike out the eighth-most of any team in the Majors. Imanaga will keep it rolling.
Total RBIs

Ian Happ o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Michael Burrows.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Ian Happ has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph EV.
Total RBIs

Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The 7th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Andrew McCutchen o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Andrew McCutchen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Alexander Canario o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. Alexander Canario will have the handedness advantage over Shota Imanaga today.. When it comes to his home runs, Alexander Canario has suffered from bad luck this year. His 9.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.3.. Alexander Canario's 13% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) is in the 86th percentile this year.
Outs Recorded

Shota Imanaga u17.5 Outs Recorded (+125)
Projection 16.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. With 9 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Considering that groundball hitters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Shota Imanaga and his 44.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot today being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.. Shota Imanaga's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last year (91.6 mph).
Total Bases

Liover Peguero u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.7 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Liover Peguero in the 17th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Liover Peguero is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 5th-worst stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats to righties.. In the majors, the 7th-highest fences are at Wrigley Field.. Out of every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
Total Bases

Carson Kelly u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 15th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 5th-worst stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats to righties.. In the majors, the 7th-highest fences are at Wrigley Field.. Michael Burrows will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carson Kelly in today's matchup.. Carson Kelly has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Joey Bart o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 86th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. Joey Bart will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.. Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
Total Bases

Tommy Pham o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of the day.. Tommy Pham will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Andrew McCutchen o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+110)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Andrew McCutchen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.