New York @ St. Louis picks
Busch Stadium
NYY vs STL Picks
MLB Picks
Outs Recorded


Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
There’s one aspect in particular that’s of specific concern: Sonny Gray’s barrel rate. He’ll enter this game with one that’s in the bottom 30% of baseball, with a slight rise in his homers per nine innings. This is a New York Yankees offense that has led the league in barrel rate for a few years now, and this season is no different. With that in mind, not to mention the hitting-friendly conditions in the Bronx, I expect the Yankees to make this an uncomfortable outing for the Cardinals’ ace.
Total RBIs

Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of the day at 97°.. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of the day at 97°.. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Giancarlo Stanton o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run hitter.. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 94°.. Giancarlo Stanton has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.2% seasonal rate to 31.6% in the past two weeks.
Total RBIs

Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in Major League Baseball.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Ben Rice o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Ben Rice is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 92°.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray today.
Total RBIs

Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 92°.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Trent Grisham will have an edge in today's game.
Total RBIs

Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 94°.. Cody Bellinger will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Nolan Gorman o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 94°.. Bats such as Nolan Gorman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Fried who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
Total Bases

Giancarlo Stanton o0.5 Total Bases (-179)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run hitter.. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 94°.. Giancarlo Stanton has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.2% seasonal rate to 31.6% in the past two weeks.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Giancarlo Stanton o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run hitter.. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 94°.. Giancarlo Stanton has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.2% seasonal rate to 31.6% in the past two weeks.