Philadelphia @ Washington picks
Nationals Park
PHI vs WAS Picks
MLB Picks
Earned Runs Allowed


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Total RBIs

Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Josh Bell has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Total RBIs

Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

J.T. Realmuto o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, J.T. Realmuto will have an advantage today.. J.T. Realmuto has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Dylan Crews o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Crews in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Dylan Crews has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Dylan Crews will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Robert Hassell III o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Robert Hassell III in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest RF fences in MLB.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Robert Hassell III will have an advantage in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Paul DeJong o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Paul DeJong is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst of all teams today).
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Bryce Harper o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Riley Adams o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 1.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 88°.. Riley Adams has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Riley Adams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. Over the last 7 days, Riley Adams's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.3%.