Colorado @ St. Louis Picks & Props

In the last week, Ivan Herrera's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.6% down to 0%. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 16.3% to 9.3%. Over the last 7 days, Ivan Herrera's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.8%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ivan Herrera's true offensive talent to be a .331, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .034 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .365 wOBA.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally bad for dingers. Masyn Winn has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Masyn Winn's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 86.3-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally bad for dingers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Karros has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, angling balls between -4° and 26° 77.8% of the time in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jordan Beck's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Beck is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Over the past 14 days, Jordan Beck's 47.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.2%. Jordan Beck has compiled a .327 BABIP this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In the past two weeks, Nolan Gorman's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49%.

Batting from the same side that Austin Gomber throws from, Brendan Donovan will have a tough matchup in today's game. In today's matchup, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.5% rate (88th percentile). In the last 7 days, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Warming Bernabel in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Warming Bernabel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Adael Amador will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Michael McGreevy today. As it relates to his batting average, Adael Amador has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .179 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .206.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Tyler Freeman is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). By putting up a .344 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Tyler Freeman is positioned in the 79th percentile for offensive ability. With a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Tyler Freeman is positioned in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brenton Doyle hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Brenton Doyle has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.4-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph average. Over the last two weeks, Brenton Doyle's 57.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.4%.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Braxton Fulford hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The standard deviation of Braxton Fulford's launch angle has been very consistent in recent games (34.9° over the last week), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Yanquiel Fernandez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yanquiel Fernandez has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Mickey Moniak is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy in today's game. Mickey Moniak has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP. Mickey Moniak has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last 14 days.

Ezequiel Tovar's BABIP ability is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ezequiel Tovar is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ezequiel Tovar has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.7% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.6°, Ezequiel Tovar has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 28.8° figure in the past 7 days.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Victor Scott II can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.8°, Victor Scott II has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27.6° figure in the last 14 days. Victor Scott II has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .279 mark is considerably lower than his .293 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jordan Walker's BABIP talent is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Walker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Gomber today. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pedro Pages will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Gomber in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game. Pedro Pages has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.4% seasonal rate to 30% over the last 14 days. Pedro Pages has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 97.2-mph over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Thomas Saggese will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Gomber in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Thomas Saggese's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.1-mph over the course of the season to 96.1-mph lately.