Houston @ New York picks

Over the last 15 days, the Yankees rank 23rd in OPS and OBP and 24th in average. And they just seem to hit lefties better — which doesn't bode well for them tonight against Hunter Brown, who's been lights out this year. Brown ranks inside the top five in ERA and strikeouts, and this game sets up nicely for him to pick up his 10th win of the year, which would push him inside the Top 10 in that category.

The Yankees have seen their approach at the plate get progressively worse as the season has gone on, which will not help them against Astros ace Hunter Brown. For some reason, the Astros have moved from -130 to close to EVEN money since open. I projected -145, so I'll gladly take the better number for Houston to win straight up.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ben Rice ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Ben Rice will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup.. Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

When estimating his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Christian Walker has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 96.8-mph in the past 7 days.. Christian Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 14% on the season to 31.3% over the last 7 days.

When estimating his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Cam Schlitter throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage in today's game.. Jesus Sanchez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 16.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 25.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Austin Wells will have an advantage in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Austin Wells tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Austin Wells's launch angle this season (21.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 16.9° angle last year.

The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.. Projected catcher Yainer Diaz profiles as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in New York's projected batting order.. Hunter Brown will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Cam Schlitter in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.6°, Taylor Trammell has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 76° angle over the last 7 days.