Miami @ Atlanta picks

After a few bumpy outings reacclimating to the big leagues (11 ER across 16 IP in his first four starts), Eury Perez has found his groove by allowing just four total earned runs in his six most recent outings (34 IP). With veteran Carlos Carrasco toeing the rubber for the Braves as barely more than a warm body, the Marlins have the distinct advantage on the mound and will win once again.

This is pretty straightforward. Stowers is the Marlins' breakout star and most productive hitter with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs. The Braves are starting the husked-out shell of Carlos Carrasco who ranks in the Bottom 20% in both xERA and xBA. It feels like we are getting a crazy deal with Stowers to get an RBI at this price.

No team is walking more over the last two weeks than the Braves at a high 11.9% — nearly two full points ahead of the next-best team. That’s going to mean some more free passes from Miami’s Eury Perez today on the road. Perez has 18 walks over 18 starts this year and has hit 2+ walks in seven of those starts, including 3+ walks three times. His Over 1.5 walks is a tough ask to buy at -135 but considering it’s as short as -165 in other places, the -135 is a good buy. If you’re looking for something bigger, his 3+ walks are +255. I don’t like laddering plays where the first rung is heavily taxed, so I’m just putting the o1.5 BBA at -135 in the account.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eury Perez to throw 84 pitches today (2nd-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Atlanta Braves with a 22% underlying K%.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Eury Perez (42.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Atlanta's projected batting order.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park projects as the #4 venue in the majors for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 82°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Sean Murphy is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 82°.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.

When assessing his home run skill, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park projects as the #4 venue in the majors for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park projects as the #4 venue in the majors for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Agustin Ramirez in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 82°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Drake Baldwin is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Truist Park projects as the #4 venue in the majors for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 4th-shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.

The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.. Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. In the past week, Eric Wagaman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.7% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate today.