Chicago @ Seattle picks

Cal Raleigh leads MLB with 42 home runs and averages 2.2 bases per game. White Sox SP Shane Smith has just four wins in 19 starts and gets thumped by lefty bats. With the switch-hitting Raleigh batting from the left side, he'll clear his total bases prop.

Smith has shown some potential this season but loses his command too often and has been in a bad slump in the second half. He's pitching to a 9.93 ERA and averaging just 74 pitches over six starts since the All-Star break. The Mariners are a tough matchup, so I love taking a shot at the Under 14.5 outs at plus money. A number he hasn't gone over since the before the break.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 5th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

The #1 field in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.. Batting from the same side that Shane Smith throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have a disadvantage in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.. Eugenio Suarez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 48.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 33.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Josh Rojas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today's matchup.. Josh Rojas has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.. Josh Rojas has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.2-mph average.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Curtis Mead has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.. In terms of his home runs, Curtis Mead has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 8.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.1.. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Curtis Mead has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 112.4 mph (a reliable stat to assess power), placing in the 81st percentile.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Mitch Garver will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. Mitch Garver has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last year's 94.6-mph EV.. Mitch Garver's 19.7° launch angle (an advanced standard to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.

Colson Montgomery has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Colson Montgomery will have an advantage today.. Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Kyle Teel will have an advantage in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Edgar Quero has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the worst out of every team playing today.. Edgar Quero has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 3% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 7 days.. In the past 7 days, Edgar Quero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.3-mph of late.