Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh picks

It's Paul Skenes day, which usually means the Pirates bats will go cold and provide no run support for the face of their franchise. While that's bad for the Pirates, it's good for us, as we take the Under here. Brady Singer has been better of late, giving up just one run across his last two starts (13 1/3 innings). 

Just a great price for a lefty facing a righty that he has hit before over a small sample. Cruz didn't start yesterday but should slot into the clean-up spot today vs. a pitcher in Brady Singer who has an ERA over two full points higher on the road than at home. Not often can you get No.3 or 4 hitters at this price in any game, let alone guys with Cruz's power.

The Pirates' super utility man has been very productive at the plate lately, hitting .323 with seven runs scored and six RBIs over his last eight games. IKF also has the most experience vs. Singer from their time in the American League, going 6-for-14 (.429) in 17 career plate appearances. 

Oneil Cruz has drastic home/away splits, clearing 1.5 bases in 41% of his games at PNC Park compared to just 29% on the road. Reds SP Brady Singer is an exploitable pitcher for the slugging outfielder, too. Cruz owns a .286 average and just a 13.6 K% when isolating sinkers thrown by right-handed pitchers this season, which happens to be Singer's bread and butter.

The Reds have a great matchup today vs. the Pirates, and Jon Metler has already talked me into the Reds moneyline, in part thanks to Brady Singer. The Reds’ starter has been missing bats of late and absolutely filling the zone. In his last four starts, he has 28 Ks to just five walks and has gone Under this prop in four of his last five starts. His pricing is based a lot on some early command issues that might have been corrected. It’s a great day for pitching in Pittsburgh with the winds blowing in at nine mph. THE BAT projects for 1.65, and I’d buy this to +115.

Paul Skenes has failed to get 18 outs in five of his last seven starts and has hit 95+ pitches just once over those seven games dating back to June 25. His leash is always in question as long as he is working for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the plus money is the key here as the projection is around 94 pitches and 17.01 outs, which I’d put as closer to the ceiling than his floor. Punching people out is not the most efficient way of pitching, and Skenes’ pitch count can rise despite not getting himself into a lot of trouble. 

 

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Paul Skenes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Brady Singer) in this game.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Suwinski in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Jack Suwinski will hold the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even more favorably, Singer has a large platoon split.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage in today's game.

The Cincinnati Reds projected offense profiles as the 4th-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this season (97.5 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).. Paul Skenes's 2236-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 23rd percentile among all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Suwinski in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Jack Suwinski will hold the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even more favorably, Singer has a large platoon split.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage in today's game.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Paul Skenes.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 82°.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Tyler Stephenson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph EV.. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 14% to 21.8%.