Kansas City @ Boston picks

Michael Wacha has only grown stronger as the year’s gone on. He posted a season-best .238 Expected Batting Average in July with a slightly elevated .419 Expected Slugging, but the latter has always posed something of a problem for Wacha – which is why pitching at home is always a plus. The right-hander carries a 4.10 road ERA into this start with a 2.63 ERA at home, and Boston’s small home park may wind up costing this fly-ball maestro on a couple of occasions. On the other side of the coin, life should really be difficult for Dustin May as a ground-ball pitcher entering one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending in the infield. But I believe in both lineups here, particularly with Wacha stepping away from the sanctity of his home ballpark and into a tough environment against a team which has done a ton of slugging of late.

Dustin May is entering his team debut on extra rest after last pitching on July 27. He has averaged 88 pitches per start over his last 10 games but hit 100 just two starts ago. His leash might be longer than expected today. May will also get a solid matchup with the light-hitting Royals coming to Fenway that has 8-mph winds blowing in and 69-degree temps. There are great pitching conditions in Boston today.THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches and 15.7 outs today, making this a little better than a coin flip today at plus money. It’s a tough market to price but I’ll play this Over to +110. 

May makes his debut with the Red Sox tonight, and I'm betting he's a little amped up. The team is playing so well, and the crowd at Fenway Park has been electric. But there's a reason why the Dodgers were willing to part with May. He's struggled with consistency and command this season, ranking in the 29th percentile in walk rate. In fact, he might be a little too amped. I'll take the Over 1.5 walks. Something he has done in 14 of his 19 starts this season.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Because of Dustin May's huge platoon split, Vinnie Pasquantino will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Vinnie Pasquantino has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.3% seasonal rate to 18.4% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Alex Bregman will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. In MLB, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. John Rave will have the handedness advantage over Dustin May in today's game... and the cherry on top, May has a huge platoon split.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.301) may lead us to conclude that John Rave has been unlucky this year with his .262 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. In MLB, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the shallowest.. Because of Dustin May's huge platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Over the past two weeks, Kyle Isbel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.4-mph over the course of the season to 91.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for batting average.. The shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Wacha today.. Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (92.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.6 mph).. Michael Wacha's change-up percentage has dropped by 5.7% from last season to this one (32.3% to 26.6%) .